ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from Lawrence Chan:

If ES does not come back down to deal with the gap below, it will be after the new year high is made.

It just means that it will crash faster and harder from a higher price level. =)
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New year high for NDX. :cool:

Sometimes the market can be easy to read.
 
Quote from ES.Dreamer:

Everytime you have a high that is going to be retested the amateur trader immediately screams "Double Top" when it fact it's a display of strength.

Uptrends make higher highers, the "Double Top" that people see as it's doing the retest is usually an illusion as most reversal formations against the trend, fail. ESD
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At some point in time every "trend" ends, otherwise markets would be a straight-rope forever.

Tops and bottoms on any time frame usually happen with a higher high top or lower low failure. That washes out the masses who stage protective stops just beyond swing points AND traps the masses who enter breakout - breakdown trade entries in the same zones.

Two different groups are triggered on stops in the same zones: reversal entries fading the trend (too early) who get hit on stop-loss orders thru the new swing extreme, and continuation trend traders who buy the extreme high / sell the extreme low before true turn comes get stopped out when it actually turns.

Key reversal situations have identifiable characteristics as the process of trend turn unfolds. But blindly fading a potential double top or bottom has no edge... and probably a negative expectancy now in the days of algo domination where clearing price levels past recent swings is part of their written plan.
 
austin, you may be right and we are going higher,but sometimes in thin volume,the boys sneak in under the line to get a larger short position so as not to have to share at the better price,not saying that is happening,just a scenario to be aware of
 
Quote from ammo:

austin, you may be right and we are going higher,but sometimes in thin volume,the boys sneak in under the line to get a larger short position so as not to have to share at the better price,not saying that is happening,just a scenario to be aware of
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imo right now all bets are off as to long-term direction from here. The way indexes are churning sideways at relative highs for months looks a lot like mid-term tops from years past.

sub-20 VIX, sideways churn with gaps everywhere and price stalled at relative highs. I would not be married to the long side long-term, myself. But as a pure intraday ES trader, I have no bias either way.
 
Quote from ammo:

austin, you may be right and we are going higher,but sometimes in thin volume,the boys sneak in under the line to get a larger short position so as not to have to share at the better price,not saying that is happening,just a scenario to be aware of
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Actually, I am bearish also and I think your 53 number is valid, I just want to be prepared in case I am wrong in the off chance there is a break out of the range and there is a confirmation of a resumption of an upward trend. But I don't know at this point - especially with the uncertainty of raising the debt limit. Actually, its that news event is one of the biggest factors in me stepping back to be on the sidelines. I know pure technicians say don't consider news - price action and volume primarily tells all. But, I haven't reached the point, where I can ignore it - I probably never will. I am not talking about every day news - the debt limit drama is not normal stuff.
 
Quote from ammo:

austin, you may be right and we are going higher,but sometimes in thin volume,the boys sneak in under the line to get a larger short position so as not to have to share at the better price,not saying that is happening,just a scenario to be aware of
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20 day highs are non-confirming. This latest spike up seems like short squeeze part 2. Macroeconomically it's "Don't fight the fed." Seems like 1400 is in the cards but then lokkout below.

Short -term I see no edge up or down here.

Need to see what happens when we open. There were clear signs in retrospect that we were going higher but now if I had to GUESS I would say we go a little higher then reverse and set-up for another push late August which takes to 1400ish this Fall
 
if they told us exactly what the terms were and everything was hammered out,debt extended,greece,spain and ireland, italy,loans were extended.i still don't have a clue how that could be bullish,it might mean we wont drop 500 points,so it could be bullish in that it's not bearish,but i don't see how increasing debt will push the market up
 
Quote from ammo:

if they told us exactly what the terms were and everything was hammered out,debt extended,greece,spain and ireland, italy,loans were extended.i still don't have a clue how that could be bullish,it might mean we wont drop 500 points,so it could be bullish in that it's not bearish,but i don't see how increasing debt will push the market up
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Don't you think it's bullish short term in so far as dollars are devalued, commodities have run, the Euro is a mess so the best place is equities. No one "Buys and Holds" anymore hence the volatility at trading range edges.
 
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