ES Journal Archive (2011)

[JSHINV]

Quote from ES.Dreamer:

That is true although most technicians would consider it consolidation below resistance and a pause for the next leg up because the last move before the consolidation was up so the most probable move now is for the previous trend to resume.

Had the Head and Shoulders acted as a reversal pattern the neck had to become Resistance. Yet what we have now is a retest of the right shoulder and a rejection of a retest of the neckline.

ESD

Very good comments.

Well we'll find out.

As evidenced by your excellent trade you closed out today, I have to say you've certainly been very right right in your recent perceptions.

honestly, at this point I am neither bullish or bearish. I am on the sidelines. I am not as confident which way it will go. Price is awful close to take out the right shoulder, but until it does, it's possible the h&s will be confirmed. I am as a rule not indecisive. but in the present chart setup, I can only say I don't know.

 

[ES.Dreamer]

Quote from JSHINV:

Very good comments.

Well we'll find out.

As evidenced by your excellent trade you closed out today, I have to say you've certainly been very right right in your recent perceptions.

honestly, at this point I am neither bullish or bearish. I am on the sidelines. I am not as confident which way it will go. Price is awful close to take out the right shoulder, but until it does, it's possible the h&s will be confirmed. I am as a rule not indecisive. but in the present chart setup, I can only say I don't know.

It's funny you mention that.

I exited because I want the Right Shoulder confirmation.

Once we get that, all we need to do is buy the retracements from then on until the next line of bear defense.

ESD

 

[JSHINV]

Quote from ES.Dreamer:

It's funny you mention that.

I exited because I want the Right Shoulder confirmation.

Once we get that, all we need to do is buy the retracements from then on until the next line of bear defense.

ESD

if the right shoulder is taken out and there is no h&s, I'll buy probably with a target just under the year's high, wait and make sure there is no bearish double top and if price breaks past the prior high (the h of the h&s), I'll buy again. if the price drops leaving the right shoulder intact, i'll cautiouslly go short - cautious because we will still be range bound.

 

[eudaemon]

Everyone knows the market will decline and close substantially lower Monday, right ?.

Discuss HOW are you playing it.:eek: :eek:

 

[FreakofNature]

Quote from eudaemon:

Everyone knows the market will decline and close substantially lower Monday, right ?.

Discuss HOW are you playing it.:eek: :eek:

I kind of like to trade price and not crystal balls though.

Hard to tell now with a closed market where we could close you know



FoN

 

[JSHINV]

Quote from JSHINV:

if the right shoulder is taken out and there is no h&s, I'll buy probably with a target just under the year's high, wait and make sure there is no bearish double top and if price breaks past the prior high (the h of the h&s), I'll buy again. if the price drops leaving the right shoulder intact, i'll cautiouslly go short - cautious because we will still be range bound.

Clarification: it's really if price pushes past the h of the h&s I'll be very bullish because the double top bearish threat is gone, the h&s is gone and price will have broken out of the range. if the market goes down Monday I'll evaluate and look to go short at the right time. by evaluate, I mean look at price action after the first 15 -30 minutes after the open. But if it stays close to the open most of the day, I am still at I don't know.

 

[ES.Dreamer]

Quote from JSHINV:

Clarification: it's really if price pushes past the h of the h&s I'll be very bullish because the double top bearish threat is gone, the h&s is gone and price will have broken out of the range. if the market goes down Monday I'll evaluate and look to go short at the right time. by evaluate, I mean look at price action after the first 15 -30 minutes after the open. But if it stays close to the open most of the day, I am still at I don't know.

Everytime you have a high that is going to be retested the amateur trader immediately screams "Double Top" when it fact it's a display of strength.

Uptrends make higher highers, the "Double Top" that people see as it's doing the retest is usually an illusion as most reversal formations against the trend, fail.

ESD

 

[JSHINV]

Quote from ES.Dreamer:

Everytime you have a high that is going to be retested the amateur trader immediately screams "Double Top" when it fact it's a display of strength.

Uptrends make higher highers, the "Double Top" that people see as it's doing the retest is usually an illusion as most reversal formations against the trend, fail.

ESD

Maybe we will find out. Maybe not.

 

[JSHINV]

Quote from ES.Dreamer:

Everytime you have a high that is going to be retested the amateur trader immediately screams "Double Top" when it fact it's a display of strength.

Uptrends make higher highers, the "Double Top" that people see as it's doing the retest is usually an illusion as most reversal formations against the trend, fail.

ESD

Actually I am aware that true bearish double tops are rare. There are a number of criteria to be met to qualify as a true bearish double top. I don't remember the criteria off hand. If you read what I said carefully though, I brought up double top in the context of going bullish.

 

[ammo]

Quote from ES.Dreamer:

Everytime you have a high that is going to be retested the amateur trader immediately screams "Double Top" when it fact it's a display of strength.

Uptrends make higher highers, the "Double Top" that people see as it's doing the retest is usually an illusion as most reversal formations against the trend, fail.

ESD

..that es vol spike,and the 1353 major trendline from 1936 and 1987 highs that wasn't hit lends itself to a top in here http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3243359