ES Journal Archive (2011)

[jackson222]

short 1323.00

 

[FreakofNature]

Quote from eudaemon:

If you have 3 add-in average levels at equidistant prices in a "trading range" you can be "right" 87.5% of the time and still only breakeven after costs over the long term. If you do it against "a trend" your advantage vanishes even faster. If you are a marvelous level picker, and put your biggest size at the extreme spots then your mileage will probably be better. In any case the % return-on-risk of your account will likely be dismal.

I think traders average down because it's tough to constantly take realized losses and keeping the loss unrealized still gives them a sense of hope, the illusion of unrealized aka only on paper as its commonly said.

From a mathematical standpoint its much more efficient to re-enter, letting the loser get bigger no matter the reason is just no good management in my eyes.

Lastly let's not forget the all time great Tudor Jones and his famous quote "Losers average losers".

In this regard I feel at ease, it's in the price action where I need more experience.

FoN

 

[BSAM]

The bears seem to be playing a good defensive game today, but they may get exhausted soon.

 

[FreakofNature]

Quote from BSAM:

The bears seem to be playing a good defensive game today, but they may get exhausted soon.

Trying to get a retrace to get long but not enough.

Might need to wait for some volatility event perhaps afterhours.

FoN

 

[ajcrshr]

ammo, here's a good article addressing the recent surge in M2

http://www.fixedincomelive.com/2011...sion-in-m2-and-demystifying-fed-other-assets/

 

[BSAM]

Quote from FreakofNature:

Trying to get a retrace to get long but not enough.

Might need to wait for some volatility event perhaps afterhours.

FoN

If it goes, I'm thinking we might see an upward blast with little retrace.

 

[eudaemon]

Multi-day "trends" only extremely rarely end up with a extreme in a globex session outside RTH. Therefore today's high is a candidate to be taken, generally for at least 2-3 points, but sometimes more if the trend is to continue. This one gives 1331 even more likelyhood of happening.

 

[ammo]

Quote from ajcrshr:

ammo, here's a good article addressing the recent surge in M2

http://www.fixedincomelive.com/2011...sion-in-m2-and-demystifying-fed-other-assets/

reminds me of a consuelo mack program 2- 2 1/2 years ago where the guy said large money was moving out of the US into foriegn investments,maybe it's coming back ,thanks for the link

 

[FreakofNature]

Quote from eudaemon:

Multi-day "trends" only extremely rarely end up with a extreme in a globex session outside RTH. Therefore today's high is a candidate to be taken, generally for at least 2-3 points, but sometimes more if the trend is to continue. This one gives 1331 even more likelyhood of happening.

Perhaps that's why when I get filled, I get stopped, and when I miss it, it rallies

FoN

 

[eudaemon]

Some crap news just happened.