ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from Lucias:

[07-13-11 02:18 PM

Maybe it will rally into the close. We do have a wide range when tends to limit the downside.

What do you think? Are these new lows a buying opportunity for a trade back to 1322-1325? [/B]
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I guess I went to other things right before you posted. I had finished as far as I was concerned for the day. I had been hoping to trade short today and have enough to hold the short o/n (which I don't in my short term account).

I feel the high was put in last Thursday 7 July with 1342.50 RTH and 1354.50 in ETH, with an island top reversal. As I missed catching it (Wednesday's high was close to the end of the day and I don't hold overnight, I have been trying hard to get a good trade in build up the account.

For today you can see my estimate high zone and low zone (parallel red lines). So at the time you posted it was getting close to the estimated low zone. (Since the close it has gone down into the low zone).

Sorry to have not replied before the close but as I had a Caret day penciled in I guess I would have said no. (Caret day is like and inverted "V"). -see "cabbage",V,C C=Caret.

I hope that helps.
 

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Quote from marceck:

If ES cannot hold 1310 at the close, it will get ugly tonight. Traders need to respect this kind of reversal and use caution and not blow out their accounts. A test of Globex lows is coming (1307.25), let's see how we do there.
As a rule, when you get a strong auction like today on the ten year (even at 2.9%!), you need to watch your step with equities. At least for now. Longer term, this is bullish because international money is flowing into US bonds, which will in turn go to US equities. But for now, be careful. I'm still in scalp mode, expecting a cycle turn soon, though.
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Great analysis and call marceck.

This sets us up for a flush from 3 sets of stuck longs now. Making the reward even higher for long trades later.

For now we enjoy the gift of range.
 
Quote from marceck:

Very, very curious to see how ZN trades when it re-opens following the Moody warning on US downgrade.
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ZN opens negative and it is not helping ES and NQ. So that could mean we might finally get that yield rise trade? Very interesting indeed. Not anything dramatic so far, no one really believes the US will default, but it's getting a little hairy indeed.
 
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