ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from Lucias:

@Blotto I suspect we really into close. Bears lost target. Predicted close 1316-1322. Oh well. nevermind me.. GS just did a swan dive.
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Bears lost target?

I think most small traders are bulls today, going long after breaks to new lows and being stopped out when we go lower.

Pressure of losses on the day leading people to force trades and become more desperate to get it back, getting long again thinking "it can't go any lower".

Those who went into today bearish will be happy enough with us closing down 30 points, and can cover into long capitulation at another new low for the day.
 
blotto yep I was wrong.. I thought that GS was showing some strength then it did a swan day. I came into the day bearish but played levels. I almost always do poorly when I focus on levels over the trend.

BTW WTH is up with GS, it closes at lows and then goes to highs of day?

LOL we are back to my 1318 level.. all the day traders had to cover. funny. This is very good for me was -$170 and now only -$50 and we still moving up..
 
Quote from Blotto:

Bears lost target?

I think most small traders are bulls today, going long after breaks to new lows and being stopped out when we go lower.

Pressure of losses on the day leading people to force trades and become more desperate to get it back, getting long again thinking "it can't go any lower".

Those who went into today bearish will be happy enough with us closing down 30 points, and can cover into long capitulation at another new low for the day.
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nicely summed up
 
Quote from Lucias:

Blotto.. yeah I think pitnoise would be entertaining but i don't want to really on someone else for my market read. I think it would be more entertaining then really useful. Is there any sort of ticker that alert us to major news? My greatest fear is some big news hits that I'm not aware of. I dont trade the news or use the news except for economic events -- like you. But lets say I'm shooting for target 1322 and Obama comes out and they reach a deal, I'd probably just pull my target if we started rallying really hard. But if I don't know then I wouldnt know.
markets/exchanges. I also found Ninja to be horrible -- everyday I was helping them debug it. I only wanted it for the DOM but that was a long time ago to be honest.
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Ninja...still debugging! I haven't used them since 2006 if I recall - and they had plenty of bugs then. I saw it wasn't going anywhere so switched to better platforms.

Agree with you about pit noise. Perhaps there are some ex pit guys using it at a screen, but the pit edge isn't there at the screen, so doubt it is really more than a gimmick / entertainment for most.

You'll never get the news ahead of institutions and market markers, so very little advantage when trading index futures. Always know your stop point in advance and adhere to it no matter what. That should save you from most unexpected news. Once you've had years of watching the market, when something truly abnormal starts to happen you'll see it in the price and most often get a chance to get out.

Remember that news is used as a justification for what would have happened anyway, and it is extremely rare for news to change the flow of the market and do the opposite to what was most likely to happen. Even then, it is typically a temporary blip.

Good luck if news hits and you're trading size and can't get out. I remember a Rearden Metal post where he was bearish in a bear market and dropped low seven figures in a day because of a 50 point ES pop on a surprise rate cut. I think his final score for that day was net loss of a million four, even after he had reversed long and recovered about half his max loss on the day. You'll find that in the P&L threads - I think it was 2001.

I think the news only affects market temporarily and then it does what it was going to do. In the example above, RM was bearish in a bear market which continued down after the rate cut led to a rally for a few days. The Oct 2007 rate cut delayed the actual top for about a week. The January 2008 cuts only caused a temp bottom in Jan and March, and the short selling ban / bailout vote only caused a temporary spike before we came off another 50%. The SNB kept intervening on the EUR/CHF cross above 1.50 and it went to 1.30 when they ran out of bullets. The rallies lasted a few days and were sold into with size by those who knew what they were doing.

Nice day today on the ES...didn't expect the last break to lows to reverse, but clear enough to reverse when it did. Hopefully iloveoptions made some money on his add.
 
Quote from Blotto:

No, we have different views, so only one of us will be right.
ES gone 12.50 offered so iloveoptions is filled on his add. He is now fully long, and unless we hear otherwise we can assume that a 2 point stop is quite likely.

Now if 1310.50 trades he has given away his chips to someone else. If I get filled on the bid (order been in since about 11.20) or it trades through, I'll have picked up value from his contracts.

Then the question arises as to why he would trade this way and give away his chips. That isn't being an attack dog, that is a sincere interest to help another trader out. I'm quite confident that there will always be enough people to sell to me, so my interest isn't threatened if iloveoptions decides not to.

In the alternative (which I think very unlikely), the market rockets north from 1312.25, iloveoptions got the best possible fill, and I miss out on a move all the way back up the range. Then the question becomes whether I've missed something very important and that perhaps I should investigate further why placing a buy order 1 tick below the low of day when the market is down >2% might be a viable trading strategy.

So no attack dogs, and no unnecessary warmth. Just chillin and asking some simple questions.

Since everyone seems to still be long, I'm getting skeptical about 10.50 being a long trade after all. I'll post if I decide to pull the order.



So you are using time as a stop and the failure to go lower in the last 20 minutes as an exit signal? Don't you think there might be more to come? If your average is 50, would you consider leaving some on until end of day in case we get a decent spike down into the close?

Also, why is this an exit for your swing trades? What duration do you view as swing? What if this is the top of the market?

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First of all, unless I specifically say so, I rarely use a 2 point stop. I average down a lot and sometimes up.

Sure, there might be more downside to come, but I was betting that there might not, and it looks like i was right. Maybe too soon that I would have to puke tomorrow for not staying in longer. On a swing position, my stops are usually 20-30 point away, and day trades around 10-15. I typically swing till I hit my target or damn close to it. No time frame is used. This could be a top, but it could not, no?
 
Blotto I have multiple reasons. Spy put interest. R30 from 42. R40 from 53-54. Because I think we will retest the neckline of the head and shoulders at 27 to 29 as early as tomorrow from DEMTDAYBOYZ and I will be long from 15 to 17 area with a target of 26-29 and stop at 10.
 
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