ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from Laissez Faire:

Here is a 5-minute chart I backtested my methodology on today.

My system told me to enter long on a stop order 2 ticks above the opening range high as shown by the arrow. This order was placed in advance when we were trading @ 62 and testing the mid-area of the opening range. I reasoned that a break of this level one more time meant that we would get the 50% gap fill and a possible R20.

Now, it`s rare to get this much momentum on the ES contract on one single bar, but it illustrates well the concept of buying a new high and let momentum carry you into a trade.

A more nimble price action trader might have bought a tick or two above the highs of the two bars preceding the large breakout bar as price found support around the 50% level.
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One of the obvious mistakes in your trading is , you are annotating everything.took a quick look at your annotations, and it was just close to random price action from a gapdown.

The unrandom parts was left un-annotated, believe it or not :)


Example #1: breakout following breakout with tests of stops,
How are you going to risk manage with all these tests of stops?

a. The test of stops can happen or it can not happen, where will you risk manage?

b. If you put your stop at the low of the LOWS, you can probably get stopped out mainly because of lack of information of larger trend.

c. If you put your stop at breakout, you would be stopped out, because it dips farther then breakout.,

d. Trading breakouts in general is risky business because of the dumb money focusing on it. (it wasn't a breakout either)

e. What you traded wasn't a breakout, it was a gapfill) because of lower lows. So your theory of breakouts wouldn't even apply.


Theres way too many "if this happens then it could be this , but it could also be this " in your charts, its equivalent to GAMBLING.
 
figure out whats important, breakouts ain't it. the triple W low ain't important, the 50% gap ain't important. Most of the crap on your chart ain't important. the technical can be subjective, but from your annotations

you are definately not focusing on whats important cause there couldn't be 10 things thats important.
you are focusing on what stands out. Big difference.


In a war, snipers don't take out random targets, they focus on who's important, and disregard the rest of the 25,000 plebians. Some dood can be in a clown suit, while he may stand out, a sniper must quickly refocus.
 
since its onesided on ur work, i'll post my work.
this is important.

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Quote from marceck:

I'm not suggesting the H&S with NQ will play out, just that it's an option.
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That's my confusion with TA.

There's usually a bearish and bullish possibility at nearly all times.
 
Coolweb,

Maybe it's me, others can deny or confirm but from over here it looks like you are talking a lot of crap and pumping a lot of chest without saying anything at all.

NAD
 
Quote from anglagard:

That's my confusion with TA.

There's usually a bearish and bullish possibility at nearly all times.
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Good, but that's only half the battle.

Spot the bull formation

Spot the bear formation

Sit tight, be patient.

When one side fails, STRIKE!

get it ?

NAD
 
Quote from volente_00:

same pattern on nasdaq cash


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^IXIC&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=


:confused:
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NDX if it is going to do a H&S we are talking about 25 to 30 pts higher from here.

NDX is the mkt leader and the composite is not.

That extra 25 pts translate to 10 to 15 pts in ES thus breaking the H&S you are talking about.

p.s. I do believe a pullback is in order but I am not in the H&S camp on daily any more since 1300 was broken. I am more a DT kind of guy now. =)
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

NDX if it is going to do a H&S we are talking about 25 to 30 pts higher from here.

NDX is the mkt leader and the composite is not.

That extra 25 pts translate to 10 to 15 pts in ES thus breaking the H&S you are talking about.

p.s. I do believe a pullback is in order but I am not in the H&S camp on daily any more since 1300 was broken. I am more a DT kind of guy now. =)
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Now we are talking, I got serious resistance above our current yearly highs. We may or may not breach it but I'm going to assume
failed breakout shall we breach it.

Very dangerous area above 1380s for bulls, potential bend of 20-40 points, perhaps none but that's my call.

NAD
 
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