ES Journal Archive (2011)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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market goes from supp to resistance to supp,that doesn't change,they just keep moving the lines,practice finding s/r long enough ,it will become second nature, you can trade the extremes ,major tl's s/r and sit on your hands for the chop between or ride it to the other line,ignore everything else,especially yourself
i watch the djt for truth vs manipulation in the liquid futures,watch the uvol/dvol ,it only makes 4 or 5 patterns,use the tl's and market profile,know the supp/res in the main thing moving the market,its been the dollar/euro for awhile,it's pretty simple here explaining it on a mssg board,ignoring yourself and just watch this stuff,do your job,same as you would putting cars together on an assembly line,you would just think about the work,think about your personal stuff on your own time
im sorry i really dont understand what you are saying. i've looked at support/resistance in the form of previous day high lows, overnight high lows, and other levels and none have consistently proven to be reliable in their response....it seems all to be a crapshoot. sometimes they go through and sometimes they bounce back...
the weekly/monthly/yearly are major,the daily /hourly,30 minute,15 minute ,5 ,1, are weaker in that order,they are chopping within the major trendlines,if you are having trouble,go back to the major tl's and sit on your hands until we get there,we are at a major res line right now,short it when it hits,wait and see if its a strong or mediocre reverse take a profit,have a stop above,it usually retests it before it descends,if it breaks above ,watch for a 2 day to 2 week,(really have no idea about the 2 day or 2 week timeframe,) but watch for a rounding top or a strong up move....if you look at a long term chart ,yearly,you will see that it stays in a channel the majority of the time,that should give you some POSITIVE belief to build on,it's late and i'm babbling ,but the few things i mentioned that i watch are all things that i found positive beliefs in,they work the majority of the time ,like better than 75%,so i can trade comfortably,or with minimal fear,the less fear the more i can ignore myself and just watch the market,when 3 or 4 of these things line up together ,its a winner more than 75% of the time,all the trades you don't take while waiting for a setup are winners because you didn't give back your profits ... search elovemer handle ,he's got a thread where he 's posted hundreds of channels..they are all over ET...in 5 years you may have tried 25-30 things, thats 5 or 6 a year,or 2 months on each,you cant get skilled at using them or learn to trust them in that short of time,the tl's work but they have a personality and if you spend enough time with them you will master them...you sound like your getting beat up lately and a little low on confidence,sit and wait for opportunity,those major trendlines you could sit back and watch and only make one trade a month and still make great money,...that's sort of how buffet made his money..very few trades but the right ones
This question should not be asked at all if you already have an exploitable edge on hand and that you understand what sound money management is.
There is no such thing as "expected average return to be ..." because that depends on the edge or bias you are using to produce the results and the way you are using leverage.
ammo's methodology is more in line with market making so limiting yourself to RTH only will defeat the purpose of his trading style.
From what you asked so far, all I can suggest is to look into the most basic form of trend following and see if you can find a way to lean on that mechanically, as it seems like you wanted to create a trading system.
Here is a bad example - leaning on QE.
http://www.daytradingbias.com/?p=11752
It will become a good example if we are going to get QE forever. =)
NDX supports a run to around 2450 right now, so yes, that will put ES into that zone.
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