ES Journal Archive (2011)

[volente_00]

Quote from volente_00:

oil bet and gap below



Actually I am overall bullish on the market just not at this level

I am betting on a large IHS on monthly chart playing out.


To do so we have to retrace 1290-1310 to make the shoulder


OE next week sets the stage

What do you think LC ?



Pretty as a picture




http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=CME_ES.M11.E&t=&a=&w=&v=d6

 

[eudaemon]

Quote from pauk:

You mean new yearly highs are just a fantasy? Bulls putting on a serious display of strength at the moment. Pulling the usual 'anything the bears can do, us bulls can do a lot better!' trick, lol.

Odds of new yearly highs have increased to at least 2% for the bulls. 1240 is still around 98% for the bears within 2 weeks.

Never confuse odds with payoffs, especially in a leptokurtotic distribution of outcomes.

Never confuse brilliance with a bull market.

Never confuse trading with comedy.

The secret to both comedy and riches is timing.

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from volente_00:

What do you think LC ?



Pretty as a picture




http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=CME_ES.M11.E&t=&a=&w=&v=d6

Bullish since that flush low.

Was looking for 10 area to tag, and did not anticipate a gap like this.

This rally is not healthy, however, unless a retracement to 18-20 is done to shake out the weak longs. =)

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from volente_00:

stopped out



IHS is too strong but still think we can pullback 10 to 20 from 28 level before breaking out

After the fact (since I did not and do not usually touch AH market), we now know the intention is to keep the gap open.

But an island down there? Not likely.

So, 18-20 is the tell tale area - it is the 1/2 gap, island top, etc.

21.75 is March close. The battle to hold up the market starts there today.

 

[eudaemon]

IMO this runup is what idiotwavers like me call a wave 2. It comes just before wave 3.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Maybe we`ll test the AH high before selling of some. Tempting to enter a short here, but I`m waiting

 

[Laissez Faire]

Short @ 1325. Stop @ 1327. Targeting 1320/1318.

EDIT: Stop tightened to 1327. Better to take a re-entry higher if we do test the AH high first.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Finding early support here @ 1324, but we are making lower highs.

Volume is not too incredible either.

Weird if we does not go any lower first, no?

 

[Laissez Faire]

Quote from Laissez Faire:

Short @ 1325. Stop @ 1327. Targeting 1320/1318.

EDIT: Stop tightened to 1327. Better to take a re-entry higher if we do test the AH high first.

Out @ 1324,75.

Considered taking profit when we first hit 1324, but I thought it was gonna break.

Buyers are defending the 1324 level. I do think a break is due, but I might get a better bargain or better confirmation later.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Now one can only wait for the AH high to be tagged, before consisdering a short.

That is, if we even get a pullback :eek: