ES Journal Archive (2011)

[NoDoji]

Quote from sponge:

Hi NoD,

Thank you for your response. Perhaps I did not phrase my question clearly. I'm not so much interested in how you use the 20 MA, but your reasoning as to why you believe it provides S/R?

It tends to provide S/R more often than not in a trend within a given time frame.

When it breaks in a trend, savvy traders consider the break a potential bear trap/bull trap and will initiate or add to positions in the direction of the trend as long as price action invites an entry and the next S/R level remains intact (that is where I would place my stop when playing the "golden" setup this way).

Notice with ES, the break of the trend line recently (1298) washed out the weak longs and came right back up through the trend line. This creates a potential "golden" setup, a bear trap in an uptrend. Trends do not die easily. Experienced traders and systems programmed to buy dips/sell rallies in a trend take advantage of these setups.

These are setups that cause less-experienced traders to scratch their heads and say , "WTF's it doing that for?"

Now, if price can't give a good run at 1343 from here before breaking 1313 downside, ES swing traders are dealing with a potential trend reversal or, at best, a fairly wide consolidation range.

My analysis is based on only three years of trading experience and I welcome alternative analyses from seasoned traders.

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from sponge:

Just curious for your reasoning behind a 20 period MA providing support during a pullback, as opposed to support that is created by actual price. And why 20, not 19 or 21?

this may interest you

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/02/052102.asp

 

[ammo]

interesring kp, there is a ten day rule also where if you work at a firm and are pushing a stock,if you buy it for your personal acct,you must hold it for ten days,so you cant be accused of frontrunning, buying it and then pushing it and selling your personal stock to your customers at a higher price,in todays ethical climate i'm not sure whether they still practice it,there is little if any investigation of crime in the financial industry,they mention in the article that you could use a shorter time frame...http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2935306&highlight=ten+days#post2935306

 

[i_c_fed_people]

Quote from i_c_fed_people:

'panic' over
closing 16.5 long here at 18.5 for +2

Just holding the 34 long now.
Will add again at 1305

There were silly bargains to be had yesterday!
I took 2 more longs for a few points profit

Have a good weekend all

and closing the 34 long here at 36 for another +2

all flat and profitable.
Told you it was only a silly drop
Waiting to get long

 

[candles]

Quote from candles:

long 1337

Well done Fedpeople. Took a bit of patience, but im nearly back on this one, lol. However, bought a lot more as it was dropping so overall it doesn't matter. I could take the loss now and be nicely in profit since that long, but since I didn't post them add-ons, ill just wait for this one to come back in profit for the sake of the thread, lol.

 

[i_c_fed_people]

Quote from feng456:

hey fed, you still in that long at 34? hows the "i only go long lol" working for ya? ad didnt u add another long at like 16 or 17? so wat r u down like 30 some points now?

 

[Laissez Faire]

Quote from i_c_fed_people:

I also find it funny that you risked over 30 points to get 2 points. If you don't want to short, you should have at least taken a small loss and entered long when or after the market bottomed out.

If you have very deep pockets and are right 100% of the time, it might work for a while though

 

[i_c_fed_people]

just part of the game.
95% of trades give me +3 - 5 points with no heat at all.
5% of trades i have to take some heat on, but in averaging in I always end up in profit. Dont forget the +7 points or so on add-ons as part of this trade.
I just have to accept that this happens on rare occasion and deal with it.
Take the good with the bad.
I like how people pounce when this rarity occurs and the dismiss previous gains.
Anyone can tally up all my posted trades to see how im getting on though

Good luck all.

 

[Airwaves]

Quote from i_c_fed_people:

just part of the game.
95% of trades give me +3 - 5 points with no heat at all.
5% of trades i have to take some heat on, but in averaging in I always end up in profit. Dont forget the +7 points or so on add-ons as part of this trade.
I just have to accept that this happens on rare occasion and deal with it.
Take the good with the bad.
I like how people pounce when this rarity occurs and the dismiss previous gains.
Anyone can tally up all my posted trades to see how im getting on though ;.

Good luck all.

You are wasting time in trying to justify yourself. I know from experience!

Dont forget your audience has been very very bearish for a very long time now. The last 300 ES points or so. Your method relies largly on the natural upside bias of the ES, and most simply dont want to believe that this is the case for whatever reason. As such, you'll just be spinning your wheels...

Just keep racking up the points.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from i_c_fed_people:

and closing the 34 long here at 36 for another +2

all flat and profitable.

Don't call yourself a genius just yet.

I gave you kudos when you kept going long in the uptrend with little or no heat. But eventually what we said would happen came to pass and you held long into a downtrend. (I assume you actually did)

Any idiot can do that. And when you averaged in, you didn't hold the extra contract long enough to make a signifficant profit. You made 2 points while you were down 40.... Had you held the 1314 (or whatever it was) entry until now, you would get a better grade.

So again, don't call yourself a genius, just yet....

P.S.: Not to mention when you were told by a certain poster where the top and the bottom would be.