ES Journal Archive (2011)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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[facepalm]
You are complaining about 1 tick as gap left? (Cash had 3 ticks crack left, and as we know the rule is based on the cash action)
Less than a point is not a gap. Anything above 1325 ES was a gift to short this morning with a guaranted 5+ points return, based on the 2nd gap rule...
You are complaining about 1 tick as gap left? (Cash had 3 ticks crack left, and as we know the rule is based on the cash action)
Less than a point is not a gap. Anything above 1325 ES was a gift to short this morning with a guaranted 5+ points return, based on the 2nd gap rule...
Quote from pauk:
probably
i actually thought we were seeing the start of a big correction, but looks like you were right again! they recover drops so so easily on the ES. You seem to bank 3 points every day and then, very occasionally have to take some heat which, inevitably works out for you because the ES is crooked! lol. I like it. Just dont use that method on other instruments where the market is allowed to go both ways! hehe
ES runs both ways. The reason it bounced so nicely off the low is because 1298 was the trend line touch and when buyers stepped in ABOVE the next support level to be tested (1291.50) and bid it up to close above the trend line, that means the trend is intact.
ES has been in a long up trend and the price action tells you the trend is intact.
You can make money shorting when a previous day's low becomes resistance following a run up to the upper channel line (overbought/overextended) such as when Friday's 1235 low became resistance last Tuesday, and you can make money buying the pullback to the 20-day MA (which provided a small bounce, but quickly failed), then make money shorting for the remaining pullback to the trend line (Wed thru Thursday), then make money buying on Friday when the trend appears intact.
Bulls need to see 1340's before the 1290's again, IMHO, or we have a short term trend reversal signal.
Hello everyone,
I started a thread a little while back on patterns in the ES market. Feel free to contribute
I just uploaded today`s chart:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3107195#post3107195
Kind regards,
LF
I started a thread a little while back on patterns in the ES market. Feel free to contribute
I just uploaded today`s chart:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3107195#post3107195
Kind regards,
LF
In an uptrend I look for support at or near the 20-period MA, but I put on the trade when price breaks a previous bar high after price appears to have established support there.
The 20-bar MA is a frequently-used mobile S/R level in a trend. If price a) finds support above it in a strong uptrend via buyers bidding up through a previous bar's high above the 20-period MA, or b) finds support at it in an uptrend, via buyers bidding price up through a previous bar's high off the 20-period MA, or c) price breaks the 20-period MA, but only by a little and then breaks the previous bar's high, taking it back up through the 20-period MA (this is a bear trap "golden" setup for me), I will take all these as long signals.
I have no problem taking a loss off these setups, and will quickly switch sides once a previous with-trend pivot low is breached.
It's a game of probabilities and the more you trust the end-game, the easier it gets to just trade and trust that in the end it will all work out profitably.
This thread provides examples of traders with various strategies generating profits without fear. I'm a firm believer in protective stops, because it's very easy to recover several small losses with one or two clean winners. Some on this thread trade without stops as long as they believe they're in the direction of the trend. This can work for weeks, months, or even years, until it doesn't.
Guaranteed? No, nothing is guaranteed.
Two consecutive gaps up in late January are still unfilled.
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