ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from ammo:

spx 02-07 doubled,pulled back to 78 fib,rallied and fell out of bed
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I noticed that, and it brings to mind a question I have for everyone ...

What, if any, effect will the fact that this latest double (666 to 1332) took LESS THAN 1/2 THE TIME as the previous double have on the timing and/or extent of the eventual significant retracement?

I think I mentioned earlier that past doubles in general have retraced at least 5%, starting anywhere from the double number to 50 handles higher.
 
Quote from ammo:

[ fundamentally,i've never seen an opportunity like this,we had the credit default debacle,now we have that compounded x 2,waiting for the other shoe to drop,so i couldn't say since it will possibly be the worst bear market we've never seen...unless bernanke succeeds at sweeping this under the carpet
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It is definitely interesting times we are in, probably get more intresting before its conclusion too

imho

RN
 
Pete is a wise market analyst IMHO and he predicted the huge May-July correction last year about 6 weeks before it happened, only he thought it would start in July, not May. Regardless, his fundamental analysis of why it would happen was spot on, and he recently provided a new analysis of what's to come. He wisely goes with the flow, but remains on alert for reality kicking in:

http://www.1option.com/

"The fear of a credit crisis has evaporated. It is inconceivable to most people that it can happen on a global basis. After extensive research, I have come to the realization that it is possible and probable. The wealth centers of the world have reached the point of no return and deficits continue to spiral out of control. Structural issues are sucking them deeper into debt and interest expenses are reaching critical levels. The US, Europe and Japan are all competing for capital to finance these deficits and that means interest rates will climb, accentuating the problem."
 
It took me a long time to erase fundamental analysis from my trading but looking back it was one of the better decisions of my career.

It's just not worth it, look at the economists, why aren't they more billionaires of them ?

Markets are weird and they can remain irrational for extremely extended periods of time.

I trade the bars and nothing else, keeping it simple works for me, make it too complicated and my poor brain can't handle it.

NAD
 
Quote from ammo:

83-87 spx tripled
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Duly noted, thanks. Both doubles in there (100-200, 150-300) each took a little more than 2 years. Also, retracements from the double point:

200 (+55) ... 255 -10% to 230

300 (+40) ... 340 -35% to 220
 
i'm sim trading a scalping method today
i'll be selling overbought + 1 add with a wide disaster stop
and buying oversold with 1 add

sold at 39.25 trying to get an add at 3975 but no fill
disaster stop at 43.75
 
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