ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from noaveragingdown:

There is a world of difference between picking the bottom of an uptrend, retracement, and picking the top of an uptrend, therefore, I do not agree with your assessment.

I believe Nexen felt comfortable selling at new highs he did not try to pick a top. However, he is now trying to pick the bottom of the retracement. Market remains bullish for now and until proven guilty this is yet another retracement and not reversal. I personally think he is a little too early but I don't know if he is planning to add or where his stop is for now. I do like the premise of the trade for now as I see massive support at the high 60s and mid 50s.

NAD
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What is an uptrend?. What is a downtrend?. What is a retracement?. Does breaking 1267 low of January 20th puts in a downtrend or is it merely a an ABC "retracement" to the "uptrend"?.

From the low of 1932 the market is still in an uptrend, from friday's open or high, the market is in a downtrend, so it is from the 2007 high.

IMO: "Trend" does not exist in the present tense except in the eye of the beholder and only when using another, older price (or trade entry???) as reference.

Please discuss your viewpoint, what makes it "bullish for now and until proven guilty this is yet another retracement and not reversal".

Not attacking, but trying to learn here.:confused:
 
nexen - this is clearly just for my own personal understanding-

your buy shows 1000 shares at 127 +

127000 at risk for a return -

now every point in the spy is 10 points in the es

assuming you use a 6000 to 1 es ratio --thats equal to 20 contracts-


1000 shares @ 1 point move = 1000 dollars

20 con @ 10 point move = 10,000 dollars

i am just curious why ?

or is it just the saftey of your system -
 
Quote from creekboy:

nexen - this is clearly just for my own personal understanding-

your buy shows 1000 shares at 127 +

127000 at risk for a return -

now every point in the spy is 10 points in the es

assuming you use a 6000 to 1 es ratio --thats equal to 20 contracts-


1000 shares @ 1 point move = 1000 dollars

20 con @ 10 point move = 10,000 dollars

i am just curious why ?

or is it just the saftey of your system -
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Why is the 127k at risk? I would consider "funds not-avalable for other opportunities at the moment", but they are not at risk. Catostrophic stop loss is the true risk, planned stop is ventured risk.
 
I like to scale in and out of the positions because ES is very mean reversive in it's nature, I cannot do that in ES because in order to do that I would need to use very small stops, which I don't.

On top of that IB allows me to trade SPY from 4am to 8pm which is quite flexible. If something out of the ordinary occurs between 8pm and 4am I can always hedge with ES for every 500 spy.

Overleverage kills unless you can enter with extreme precision which I do not know how to do.
 
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