ES Journal Archive (2011)

[jjf]

Quote from JSSPMK:

I am of the opposite opinion

I would be interested in your reasoning for a falling euro.

Nameless sources have stated that China is switched from dollar reserves into euro by buying bonds of member states in return for favours granted, thus causing a dramatic rise in the euro.
The presumption being that US will idly stand by.

My long experience of following currencies is that unless a "carry trade" is in play then any political play on a currency is usually the opposite of what is expected.

If the euro spiked below parity with the dollar this year, it would not surprise me.

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from jjf:

I would be interested in your reasoning for a falling euro.

Nameless sources have stated that China is switched from dollar reserves into euro by buying bonds of member states in return for favours granted, thus causing a dramatic rise in the euro.
The presumption being that US will idly stand by.

My long experience of following currencies is that unless a "carry trade" is in play then any political play on a currency is usually the opposite of what is expected.

If the euro spiked below parity with the dollar this year, it would not surprise me.

I am not involving FA, I read them, but make decisions based on TA & some common sense perhaps. When I say opposite opinion I mean next major oscillation on wekly/monthly charts. Here is a chart of USD Index & Euro.

“Currency movements are really a function of global liquidity trends now,” said Taylor, whose firm oversees a total of $8.4 billion. “That means the dollar and what the Fed does is very, very important. Also, we have Europe still looking for money, with the euro still really, really terrible.”
The euro may fall below parity with the dollar this year, Taylor said in an interview with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” The Australian dollar and Brazilian real will extend their gains, according to Taylor."

John Taylor on Bloomberg

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3049971>

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3053270>

 

[volente_00]

Quote from apex82:

market has a high probability of rallying into the job report and then falling the week after.. do the stats. Its pretty amazing how accurate this is.

 

[jjf]

Quote from JSSPMK:

I am not involving FA, I read them, but make decisions based on TA & some common sense perhaps. When I say opposite opinion I mean next major oscillation on weekly/monthly charts. Here is a chart of USD Index & Euro.

Many thanks, all very interesting.
I don't really follow commentaries, particularly when they are free.
But I see we are not alone in our thinking.

Nobody wants a hard currency this year, but I feel US is at greatest risk simply because it is the reserve currency and therefore the refuge of last resort.

 

[Airwaves]

for old times sake ; gone long 1273

 

[fishing]

Quote from jjf:



My long experience of following currencies is that unless a "carry trade" is in play then any political play on a currency is usually the opposite of what is expected.

some examples would be interesting..

 

[jjf]

Quote from fishing:

some examples would be interesting..

As I say, it is just my experience.
But google back through a few years using variations of "currency prediction 2008" and then make the comparisons with actual.

 

[JSSPMK]

I remember there were a series of posters on ET & their slogan was "unlimited upside to go", they were buying the market every single day & they were making money consistently trading in one direction. But they got so used to market going up that I believe they have arrived at a conclusion that they have to up their size as there was "unlimited upside to go". Then one day market crashed & kept going. These guys disappeared from ET I hope they are still well & alive.

Let's remember the great crash of 1929, what was happening at the time & what happened in the end.

Are stocks putting in a bubble or pricing in future value or correcting from a crash?
Why is weekly TICK & its TRICK diverging from market price action. It's TICK after all, not a usual squiggly line.

Bottom line, be always alert, don't abuse leverage & carry on being a hammer, not a nail. Borrowed line, Ok

 

[Now is Now]

Has anybody noticed extremely low volumes in ES and 6E today...

ES just cracked 400000 at 10.06 est....so rest of day may not crack 700000....think about 50% less than the norm...

NiN

 

[Now is Now]

Quote from jjf:



"for favours granted"

English or Australian....?...