ES Journal Archive (2011)

[aquarian1]

We all know the world is populated, by in large, with buffoons, morons, simpletons and just plain idiots. Nowhere more so is this than in the world of trading.

Trading will always be full of pontificating newbies that have blown out their account and are spending their time on forums telling the world how to slice bread.

We are know they are idiots and full of bulldinky.

Instead of quoting their long-winded buffoonery simply put them on your ignore list.
If you wan to take wind out of their sails then post

@moron
or
@ rude child
etc and say your bit.

But if you quote them - then those of us who have long, long, ago placed them on the ignore list see their garbage. The net result is their idiocy or rudeness has been posted twice, once by them and then again in your post showing what we know - they are morons.

End result is to increase their energy and reduce the energy of the good people.

Let us work together to lift the thread.
Let us ignore the buffoons.

Do not quote them in reply.
Don't bother engaging in a back and forth and then after 3 posts give up.

Give up right away.

Hopefully we this plan they will die like ignored weeds, and intelligent people who are reading and not posting will feel encouraged to add some thoughtful posts to the thread.

Many thanks!

 

[austinp]

Quote from JSHINV:

I agree with the stops and target - maybe even wider at times. You place you stops to tight on the ES like 2-3 points, its a death of a thousand cuts.

That all depends... it is a relative statement above.

The average stop needs to be smaller than the average win, because no retail trader on earth bests a +/- 50% win-rate per trade over the course of time... thousands of trades over several years, all market conditions cycled.

Those who do so on a temporary basis (also relative statement) are martingaling and will eventually get stopped out for losses that erase all prior gains.

If you perfect your intraday trading with ES (or anything) that includes knowing the scant few key zones in a session where markets tip their hand. At those zones of price action, traders can easily use a -6 tick (-1.5pt) ES stop and it's plenty wide enough.

The rest of most given days, if you're trading anywhere else other than critical zones of price inflection, no size stop will save you in the end. Stops aren't the core issue... waiting patiently for the critical price zones to materialize, trading inside those and ignoring all else is what makes small stops work.

Too many retail traders logically assume that wider stops = fewer losses that creates or boosts an edge. In reality, logic has nothing to do with successful trading. Perfect entries can hold -2 tick stops while random entries will lose money over time with -20 tick stops.

Entry zone trade decisions make those subsequent stops work... the reverse is never true.

 

[JSHINV]

Quote from austinp:

because no retail trader on earth bests a +/- 50% win-rate

the reverse is never true

You mention what I say is relative and then you state absolutes as quoted above.

There are no absolutes.

I am sure you are succesful and a rich trader and I wish you well.

 

[klinckphilip]

Quote from klinckphilip:


I like being in a trade and that influences bad decisions, especially on a non-tradeable day. If I was to follow the strategy I would raise my winning percentage up much higher.

If you are intra-day trading you need to shoot for trades that should go for at least 5-15pts with 3-5pts stop. That is just how the ES moves. So taking 100 scalps in a day and making a little bit and letting your broker take the rest in fees is no way to trade. I would rather take 5pts a day on 2-3 trades if that.



excellent thoughts!

I would say the default stop should be 5-7pts
and the minimum target trade at least 6 pts


I kind of wondered about that. I have a 3-5 pt stop because I know that a spike can be at least 2pts before going in my direction. I know this because I use to get stopped out all the time and then watch as the market went 5-15pts in my direction without me.

But, I have not back tested my method. If I were to open my stop to a 6pt stop would I have been stopped out even less and had more that ran for a gain or would my stops have been even higher lowering my overall income?

I would have to employ my strategy more consistently for a longer period of time in order to back-test that. For now I will stick to my current strategy and back-test later. If I change now and lose it will do nothing for me long-term because it will not have given that new strategy enough time for good statistical analysis.

 

[Lojanica]

Quote from austinp:



The average stop needs to be smaller than the average win

most given days, if you're trading anywhere else other than critical zones of price inflection.....waiting patiently for the critical price zones to materialize

The edge is razor thin for daytrading but exists. How else is a market to function. Market makers and career traders have to eat.

I agree austinp

 

[FreakofNature]

Quote from JSHINV:

For a 20 point range, I would venture a guess that your 20 point stop is not equivalent to a 21(rounded up)/3 point stop. There would probably be well over 7 trades for traders that are using 2-3 point stops within a 20 point range. So your 20 point stop probably is less risk than people trading 2-3 point stops within that range.

I agree, hold on to the winners until the target is the key. This is even harder than finding an edge. This is the one discipline I need to perfect and work on - sit on my hands.

Ya this is something Im constantly working on.

I try to use trail stops to let my winners run, but I find out this hurts a lot more than help.

Like I said previously only netting 6 per month on average, which is not great but it's profitability, just looking to improve that's all

FoN

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from Mins:


However, if you think you are going to stop out and then re-enter every-time then that's okay

This is the proper method

---The only true edge in successful trading is capital and the use thereof-----

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from Mins:

i can guarantee no matter what PTJ says most top traders average in to major positions.

This, however, is not the case

Investors may, but not top traders.

 

[JSHINV]

Quote from FreakofNature:

Ya this is something Im constantly working on.

I try to use trail stops to let my winners run, but I find out this hurts a lot more than help.

Like I said previously only netting 6 per month on average, which is not great but it's profitability, just looking to improve that's all

FoN

I'm with you.

 

[Mins]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

This is the proper method

---The only true edge in successful trading is capital and the use thereof-----

Lets forget all the crap about trading talk and this is the right way or that is the right way. Truth is every trader thinks their way to trade the market is the right way. Every trader here comes and quotes disciplined risk management while clenching their teeth and biting their nails till their fingers bleed watching their risk management go out the window in a volatile market.

Human beings talk a lot of shi*t and we all know it, people write one thing and do another - and i think traders are some of the biggest bullshi**ers of all. Private messages over the years have proven this time and time again.

Truth is its all a load of bull - there is no right way or wrong way. The only freaking thing that matters is:

1. Are you consistently making money every month.
2. Are your draw-downs very little in relation to your gains.
3. Are you profitable year after year in either bull or bear market.
4. Are you happy with your level of income or percentage of gains from the market.

If you can answer yes to 1-4 then that's the only damn thing that matter. That is the bottom line and rest is a load riddles and traders stroking their fragile ego's. Always making double ended statements. The amount of times i have read on this site market will go up but on the other end if this or this happens it will go down. No one here wants to look like a di*ck with their posts so these types of statements are common because either way they can't lose right.

Forget all the constant patronising comments and crap about this edge and that edge and freaking howling at a full moon edge (in all my years of reading this site i have never actually come close to someone even posting anything close to an edge ).

The money is all that matters -your either winning at this game or losing.

MONEY TALKS, BULLSH*T WALKS
End this debate once and for all.