ES Journal Archive (2011)

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I look at Friday as a pretty much closed gap. At the highest we were up 18 pts from the gap and we closed 16 pts of it. That is 90% in my book, close enough. So we are ready for a new, unclosed upgap...

(NDX and SPY totally closed, DJX, who cares anymore?)
 
Quote from Pekelo:

I look at Friday as a pretty much closed gap. At the highest we were up 18 pts from the gap and we closed 16 pts of it. That is 90% in my book, close enough. So we are ready for a new, unclosed upgap...

(NDX and SPY totally closed, DJX, who cares anymore?)
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Makes sense.

In any event, Thursday's ES gap went unfilled, technically speaking, by 2.25, for a 2nd consec. unfilled up gap. So a gap up on Monday's RTH open would have extremely high odds of filling sometime during the regular session. This is just using the stats based on the strict numbers, ES RTH only ... no 'close-enoughs' or gap fills in other indices factoring in whatsoever. :)
 
Quote from tomahawk:

I'm not so sure they're going to permit another up gap ... especially if oil continues screaming, possibly past 105.00.
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The only time it matters is if you replace your opinions by placing a trade based on your best judgement.

Opinions can never be facts...trades ,on the other hand, have a clear finding...profit or loss...

NiN
 
Quote from tomahawk:

I'm not so sure they're going to permit another up gap ... especially if oil continues screaming, possibly past 105.00.
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This will be a hard gap for "them" to close
 
The 5 days chart is totally symmetric and sure enough we got a little pullback from 91, where we gapped down from a week ago. As I said on Friday morning, the island reversal was very bullish. I don't expect today's upgap to be closed. I would say it doesn't have a better than 50% probability. A partially close, sure, a full close, not guaranteed. Right now up 13 pts...

Obligatory:

Quote from startraitor:

74 to 24 from here, not 91.
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Friday ES was down from market open to market close. Trend day extraordinaire. Lower highs all day except 1 candle. 30 minute time frame. The 1 higher high candle was gift for the trader who missed the turn. The market always traps itself when attempting to trap the trader. Trader being the trapper instead of the trappee is the tricky part.
 
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