ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from tomahawk:

Ok.

2nd day rule does its own thing. :)
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And throw in an 8.9 earthquake and we have quite the situation. :D

All kidding aside, I really hope this disaster is minimized.
 
Quote from tomahawk:

2nd day gap rule in effect.
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Since cash closed around 95 that is 94ish for the March ES and we already did 93.5, so the gap has pretty much closed...
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Since cash closed around 95 that is 94 for the March ES and we already did 93.5, so the gap has pretty much closed...
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Pek, fwiw, I keep stats on strictly the ES (current contract), and go by exact ticks.

Edit: and I don't count pre-market gap fills :)
 
Quote from tomahawk:

I keep stats on strictly the ES (current contract), and go by exact ticks.
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You do whatever you want, but the rule is based on the cash close. There can be 3-4 pts difference during that 15 mins between 4 and 4:15.

For example let's say yesterday ES is at 94 when the cash closes, then goes up to 97 by 4:15 pm. Now this morning, I would have already closed my longs from overnight around 93, but you would still be holding it. Since the gap has been closed according to my view, we could fall from here, 93ish, and you would only get a breakeven or a small profit/loss, depending on where your stop loss is....

About premarket gapfills: There is again a difference between a 2 am fill and a 8 am fill. If it is rather close to the open, I count it as RTH and I don't necessery expect to do it after the open....

Edit: Here we are, 8:37 and the gap has been fully filled at 94.5... Now we can tank if the market wishes to do so, the rule has played out/been validated...

P.S.: One more explanation about the gap math: Somebody earlier was complaining about 1 point left behind. Here is how I look at it: This gap was from 94.5, overnight low was 83, that is a 11+ pts gap in my book. If we close it up to 93.5 that is a 92% close, damn good in my view, I don't view a 1 point crack as a gap anyway.

Anyhow, I explained how I view/play it, everybody does the way they want to... :)
 
Quote from Pekelo:

You do whatever you want, but the rule is based on the cash close. There can be 3-4 pts difference during that 15 mins between 4 and 4:15.

For example let's say yesterday ES is at 94 when the cash closes, then goes up to 97 by 4:15 pm. Now this morning, I would have already closed my longs from overnight around 93, but you would still be holding it. Since the gap has been closed according to my view, we could fall from here, 93ish, and you would only get a breakeven or a small profit/loss, depending on where your stop loss is....

About premarket gapfills: There is again a difference between a 2 am fill and a 8 am fill. If it is rather close to the open, I count it as RTH and I don't necessery expect to do it after the open....

Edit: Here we are, 8:37 and the gap has been fully filled at 94.5... Now we can tank if the market wishes to do so, the rule has played out...
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Gotcha .... thanks.

Regardless, obviously the ES 4:15 close can have significance in pre-market, as we see here where 94.25 provided resistance after the report. It was an R10 area as well, for confluence.
 
The first bottom was at 1:20 am at 83, and then run up to 93 by 4 am. This was an excellent example of an almost gapfill too early (only 1.5 pt left), so the market did it again just a few minutes ago much closer to the open (8:37), according to expectations...
 
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