ES Journal Archive (2011)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
I was referring to the fact that you said you would stop live trading for a while here the other day. Or did I misread that?
Consolidating here at the highs. 1 tick higher low. Could still go lower from here, I think. Hard to say.
I do not read it objectively (i.e., not programmable), so what I look for may resonate, or it may sound like gibber jabber.
However, this is as objective as I can be: I look for a 1-minute bar volume on a test of lows or some other significant price level to exceed around 15K (11:32 today even though not 15K, it's holiday volume so good enough--FWIW when I traded CL I would look for 2K volume on 1-minute). Then I look for another test of that low, and I look for it to push, one tick at a time, and for a steady increase in volume as it does this, indicating buyers present (11:36). Then the bulls actually have to act and start buying (11:37). As for the entry, then it's the "bigsnack entry", wait for some responsive selling as you would expect, and then buy it. I got greedy and did not make it on this one. It is not always this way but that's what I saw today. I want to see buyers bidding and holding price in check pretty well, and then I want to see the sellers push and push and slow to a crawl, then I want to see the market buy orders start flowing.
Basically, at that point, it's like watching a football game where one team is clearly winning, but they're getting weaker, and the other team gets a turnover and quick score, then they stop on defense and get the ball back and score again. A momentum change. Once that happens, the team may still be behind, but the other team now has to prove that they still want to win the game. That's how I see it in my head anyway.
Sometimes I think I see a momentum shift and think I'm brilliant but am dead wrong. But when I honestly listen to that little feeling in my stomach that says "get in now," it's usually right. I need to listen to it more and not try to outsmart it.
I am not at my house right now so I'm on a 15" laptop screen and I don't have my usual tools, so I have up a 500V chart, a 1m chart with volume histogram, the DOM, and perhaps the most important to me, time and sales. Without this, I have no way of seeing what's really going on. But honestly, it's probably enough for me, as I tend to overcomplicate things sometimes. While the volume histogram will tell me that volume is coming in, watching the tape will give me a sense of the mood, the speed, the urgency of the buying or selling.
FWIW, right now I'd still be looking long, but the momentum has petered out. There were two very very good opportunities to buy, and a third and more are much lower probability for me right now. As the price gets highers, sellers get more interested, and that's when we seem to get the back-and-forth chop, as no side is clearly in control.
As to a retracement, typically I look for low volume on a retracement. There may be a stop run but preferably after one side takes control, the other side gives up (the low volume), allowing the other side to continue.
Quote from Laissez Faire:
I was referring to the fact that you said you would stop live trading for a while here the other day. Or did I misread that?
Consolidating here at the highs. 1 tick higher low. Could still go lower from here, I think. Hard to say.
Agreed, old habits die hard. But on a positive note, the improvement that i have done is that I have cut down the number of trades per day to between 0 and 2, earlier used to do like 20 scalps (entries and exits). so at least being very selective.
Today made some money trading euro, so taking a high probability chance with that coin. Probably not the best logic, I know!
AH low once again acting as support here. Not as significant earlier in the day, then significant later in the day. A pattern right there.
Thanks, Josh. I think I`ll have to re-read that after the close.
Thanks, Josh. I think I`ll have to re-read that after the close.
- Status