ES Journal Archive (2011)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Thank you LF--I did expect 85 to hold. But, this time I wanted to give it room just in case, as the bulls were in control since 11:45, and thought that the trend line break might trap enough bears to push it higher. I figured that if the prior swing low did not hold that I was dead wrong.
filled for +6.25, calling it a day! Ideal exit was 92, but wanted to be sure I got filled
very good logic on stops.....backtesting will show you that your net profitability will increase if you have 2-3 point stops compared to super-tight stop like 1 point or so. Above statement is especially true if you are willing to increase the holding period of your trade from 5 or 15 minutes to few hours. After zigzagging, price will ultimately go in your direction. For example, buying around 82 area with a 6-10 point stop would have been a good trade, provided you are willing to hold your trade for multiple hours.
Quote from JoshDance:
filled for +6.25, calling it a day! Ideal exit was 92, but wanted to be sure I got filled
Another good strategy, taking profits before the last 2-3 ticks is always a better strategy than waiting for that last tick. Good job!
There is a ledge at 92 -- this is the August to present profile again, was the basis for my target along with the intraday profile and prior s/r -- failure to go above 92 here may indicate more downside.. 92 was quite important this morning and appears to be so in the long term profile as well
http://screencast.com/t/aIWS60Rm5Md
http://screencast.com/t/aIWS60Rm5Md
The thing with tight stops is that multiple hits quickly rack up to large losses. Thus, they give an illusion of trading with low risk when often the opposite seems to be the true end result.
I believe they have their place, but only if the set-up allows for it. An example would be a limit order at an expected reversal such as a 50% level and a one point stop, expecting the level to hold to the tick. Thus, a tight stop is used because the price action that stops you out invalidates the set-up and you don`t use a tight stop for the sake of it. However, entering around a zone and with a backfill instrument such as the ES, a 3 point stop is not a very large stop these days.
92 is the AH low and for a reason. In addition to what Josh mentioned, it is also a prior day`s low.
I do however hope and believe that the 50% level will provide the support we need to take it out along with the opening range high.
I believe they have their place, but only if the set-up allows for it. An example would be a limit order at an expected reversal such as a 50% level and a one point stop, expecting the level to hold to the tick. Thus, a tight stop is used because the price action that stops you out invalidates the set-up and you don`t use a tight stop for the sake of it. However, entering around a zone and with a backfill instrument such as the ES, a 3 point stop is not a very large stop these days.
92 is the AH low and for a reason. In addition to what Josh mentioned, it is also a prior day`s low.
I do however hope and believe that the 50% level will provide the support we need to take it out along with the opening range high.
And first trade of day for me, potential only trade. Keep commish low, analyze the trades that work for you, think in probabilities, size on your high-probability trades and let it run. Trade selection. Be ruthless. peace. (And let's see how long 1182-1184 long trade works today : ) if 1192 isn't much of a ceiling then looking at pre-market high test 1208s )
Average RTH range takes us up to 1220 from here if the opening range high is breached.
From 1200-1203 is the AH 50% zone, depending if calculating from the traded high or the close.
1205,25 is the 50% gap fill.
From 1200-1203 is the AH 50% zone, depending if calculating from the traded high or the close.
1205,25 is the 50% gap fill.
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