ES Journal Archive (2011)

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Quote from Laissez Faire:

So, what`s in store for tomorrow?

I`ve been looking at a lot of levels below tonight. Roughly 1200, 1195, 1190, 1185, 1180, 1170, 1166, 1/2 gap at 1161 and complete gap fill below at 1151. The resistance above from the current week is fairly obvious.

AH range lately have been around 20 points. Assuming the average range holds true and we trade lower from here the low should be around 1195.

If higher from here, the high should be around 1230.

The true AH high or low could and will probably be some place in between, but 30/95 should be the maximum expected high/low, yes? :)

Let`s see tomorrow. Mojitos now. :p
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Nice analysis. My numbers are a little bit different but, hey, whatever.

The one thing you don't mention is seasonality, which is extraordinarily relevant starting Monday. If there is a PPT, do you think they'll let the market tank now, thus demolishing the holiday shopping season, with all the deleterious economic and political ramifications going into an election year?

I don't mean this to be a rhetorical question, btw...
 
Quote from tortoise:

Nice analysis. My numbers are a little bit different but, hey, whatever.

The one thing you don't mention is seasonality, which is extraordinarily relevant starting Monday. If there is a PPT, do you think they'll let the market tank now, thus demolishing the holiday shopping season, with all the deleterious economic and political ramifications going into an election year?

I don't mean this to be a rhetorical question, btw...
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What are your numbers? Support mentioned was just a rough draft of the zones below. The more specific levels are on my cheatsheet. :)

Good point about seasonality and I should emphasize that I`m clueless with regards to predictions beyond the next hour (trying to learn), but gaps on ES like to be filled and I could easily see us trade down there by next week and then reverse from there for a nice rally.

Not sure what qualifies as a crash either. 1150 is roughly 5,5% from here.

What do you think? :)
 
Miyagi load the boat,

long @ 1214

Miyagi think we've seen the bottom base forming, think we go up from here until year end for the santiclause rally...

stops set 11.97,11.89
 
Quote from ammo:

es mp,hns pattern,head to neck is 92 points,there is a theory that for hns to be valid it needs to retest the neck (34-37) after a breakthrough,before descending
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In day trading i am strictly technical (other than tape reading). But i cannot see that these patterns play a role in the longer run when global turmoil is moving the markets left and right.
Look at the move that the Greek referendum rumor created! Where is the TA on that?!?! Pure manipulation...

I might be wrong, but I would think that these patterns are effective if "everything else stays equal", which is not the case often enough.

Good luck for tomorrow! gn all :)
 
Quote from noone3:

In day trading i am strictly technical (other than tape reading). But i cannot see that these patterns play a role in the longer run when global turmoil is moving the markets left and right.
Look at the move that the Greek referendum rumor created! Where is the TA on that?!?! Pure manipulation...

I might be wrong, but I would think that these patterns are effective if "everything else stays equal", which is not the case often enough.

Good luck for tomorrow! gn all :)
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there is a lot of manipulation but the hns pattern shows distribution rather than accumulation
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Did you see the triangle I posted earlier? You see the head and shoulder there right? I find that triangles and head and shoulders often look similar.

Nice call on 06,75. The low of 14th of October or did you see something else? :)
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Confluence of Oct 14th with a volume profile activity peak. A little under-the-weather at the moment (punching this out on my iPhone) or else I'd post a screengrab. I'll try to do it tomorrow
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

What are your numbers? Support mentioned was just a rough draft of the zones below. The more specific levels are on my cheatsheet. :)

Good point about seasonality and I should emphasize that I`m clueless with regards to predictions beyond the next hour (trying to learn), but gaps on ES like to be filled and I could easily see us trade down there by next week and then reverse from there for a nice rally.

Not sure what qualifies as a crash either. 1150 is roughly 5,5% from here.

What do you think? :)
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By "different" I mean you say 1190, I say 1192, you say "potato," etc.

As far as 1150 is concerned, if this were any other week than the week before the biggest T-day of all, in the year before the biggest election cycle of them all, I'd say "sure."

Could it happen? I guess. If it does happen, though, in the next four trading days, it will scare the crap out of everyone, dampen retail activity on Black Friday, triggering a new round of selling the following Monday as analysts adjust their expectations for the holiday season downward, etc. In other words, it could trigger a cascade effect.

I guess what I'm saying is this: If we go to 1150 before we get to 1250, then the year's top is in, and we're headed a lot lower. My guess anyway
 
Quote from tortoise:

Confluence of Oct 14th with a volume profile activity peak. A little under-the-weather at the moment (punching this out on my iPhone) or else I'd post a screengrab. I'll try to do it tomorrow
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Please do, I'd like to see your profile -- or, can you just tell me what the time frame of the profile is, and is it RTH or ETH?

Is it by chance this one:

http://screencast.com/t/Sb6dUzDJ
 
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