It's the hardest thing in the world for me to do. In my case, I think it's because "it's gone too far" ... and we fail to think in probabilities; what's more likely here-- in every case in a trend, by definition of a trend, it's that the bulls will keep buying until sellers really show something outstanding, and vice versa. But in my case, "it's gone too far." One day soon I am going to snap out of this, because I get pissed at seeing so much easy money in one direction, while I'm scraping for nickels in the other direction.
ES Journal Archive (2011)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
It's the hardest thing in the world for me to do. In my case, I think it's because "it's gone too far" ... and we fail to think in probabilities; what's more likely here-- in every case in a trend, by definition of a trend, it's that the bulls will keep buying until sellers really show something outstanding, and vice versa. But in my case, "it's gone too far." One day soon I am going to snap out of this, because I get pissed at seeing so much easy money in one direction, while I'm scraping for nickels in the other direction.
On 8/1 the market came off 1270.25 up to 1285. I really don't see any resistance before then, although the market could make some of course.
+1
spy got to .31 ..http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3340670
Quote from JoshDance:
I'd say that's worth at least $1 !
My short at 69 was based on this very premise -- this is current profile but it looked similar minus a little volume at 69 I think. Thanks for clearly stating what you said, it's very reasonable I think. I would like to formulate some similar ideas more objectively than they currently exist in my mind. Would you say that in a bullish environment that price will tend to stop at the top portion of a volume cluster? And if it moves beyond that, that it will tend to go all the way to the bottom? In other words, if they can't stop it at the top, wait till the bottom? Hard to generalize I know but just looking to pick your brain a little on this.
http://screencast.com/t/rqisnqse
Josh,
I would say that 63.50's should act as support, and if the TICK is confirming my bullish sentiment, that you should expect at least 69's, maybe even 70.25's. If we were to somehow rip all the way up to 74's, then I would buy any hesitation / pullback expecting at least 75.25's. I know in the grand scheme 5 ticks isn't much. However, if you can count on those 5 ticks with a high probability of success, well then you have an edge
That is of course that you are trying to add to a long or get in from flat..I've had an earful from ND on many occasions about this very thing.. let's just say I'm a tough nut to crack! But the rational mind in me will take over at some point and see the simple math.
Perhaps my bigger problem is that I tried to buy at the very bottom of this move but did not get a fill on my order, was off by 1 or 2 ticks I think. Then when it went up at 10:42 after not getting filled, I knew (I say that with as much certainty as possible, as no one "knows"), knew, knew, that we were heading up. But something inside of me prevented me from buying, feeling that I had missed the boat. And to make it worse, I then try to fade.
doesn't take a genus to trade of "nodoji" trendlines,
EVERY trader in the world sees those same hackneyed TL's.
real traders ANT-ti-ci-pate; move beyond the lines; think abstractly
EVERY trader in the world sees those same hackneyed TL's.
real traders ANT-ti-ci-pate; move beyond the lines; think abstractly
i've heard you say missed by a tick numerous times and ii saw you ask snack about congestion areas,start from the top ,yearly,monthly weekly,daily,multiple minute time frames,work your way down so your mindframe is bigger picture reduced and you won't mind an entry going against you as long as you are in and your scenario picking is right a large majority of the time, missed by a tick or 2 happens when you are scalping a 5 minute chart
- Status