ES Journal Archive (2011)

[ammo]

spy taking out these ledges ,like stairs,see if it walks back down

 

[tortoise]

Quote from ammo:

spy taking out these ledges

meh not exactly a barn burner ... yet

 

[dax3k]

Looks like the recession is over.

Good job guys

 

[ammo]

Quote from ammo:

reduce 51.5

add 56.75

 

[tortoise]

Quote from ammo:

spy taking out these ledges ,like stairs,see if it walks back down

i think that's about all she's got

 

[ammo]

everything is at its res trendline,tempting for the boyz to goose it and trigger all those buy stops

 

[tortoise]

Quote from ammo:

everything is at its res trendline,tempting for the boyz to goose it and trigger all those buy stops

yes

 

[JoshDance]

It's very interesting how our tendency is to try to say when enough is enough. I have been burned SO many times doing this that it makes me sick to think of it. Any attempt to say "it can't go any more", even if you get it right, is a losing proposition. Probability will always work against you when this is your approach. When it breaks a key level (I'd say 48, the last major swing down we just had), then a short is a high probability. Otherwise, a long is a high probability. It's so easy to just let it do its thing instead of trying to guess it. Even if you guess right on occasion, the laws of probability says that the edge is against you. This is more like gambling, when the house has the edge.

edit: it reminds me of the words of a good trader who gave me good advice: "trend followers are a tenacious bunch". In other words, they don't just stop trying to buy when the trend is up, and vice versa. When the trend changes, they jump ship and try that side. Guessing the top here is going against a humongous group of trend followers who don't care how far it's gone.

 

[ammo]

Quote from ammo:

add 56.75

flat 55.75.. 55 5/8 avg

 

[Macho]

Quote from Macho:

Tonight/tomorrow range is 1157.25 topside and 112125 low side.

The only good thing I can say for the benefit of Volente and other shorts is that it is probable that the lower side is 1.8:1 chance.

The trigger is how the bonds behave over night. The best thing is that they do not weaken overnight. So we may have an ES horizontal market again.Euro is in a fix, but can weaken from here.

Looks tricky.

Edit: Th 1.8 :1 chance looks good, but to be honest, yesterday/today was 1.83:1 and it was wrong!. So take it for what it is worth:eek:

Top side 115725 hit.

Selling into close 115925 stop 116400

Edit: bonds are no giving ES a break.