ES Journal Archive (2011)
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Still a bear flag, got seatbelt?
Crazy A
NQ bear flag was negated on 8/30, and the triangle upside break on the RTH hourly on 9/14 confirmed it. Bears would have to get back below 2215 to regain strong control. If they do, well then yes it could get nasty. But for now, these are just high vol pullbacks (VIX above 30, it is to be expected).
There are sellers here, no doubt, but I don't think bulls are done. After the feds, it still earnings and this up cycle could last into mid-October. Just respecting the trend, nothing more, no big statements here.
Marceck you have had some good calls recently, but does the weakness in copper, shipping, dow transports, gold holding up, bond yields and the list goes on for indicators that we are headed back into a recession saying anything to you or do you feel it can be propped up for another couple months before it caves under the pressure?
You will need volume and sell off in bond market to get this thing to break above 1225. Broken bear flag is not enough.
All you bulls and bears
Tomorrow is FOMC
Who knows what the chairmans says
but whatever it is it will determine the next big move
rather react than predict on this one
FoN
Tomorrow is FOMC
Who knows what the chairmans says
but whatever it is it will determine the next big move
rather react than predict on this one
FoN
I made it known here a while back that I am an NQ trader/chartist first and foremost because it is the heads up (or down) for ES and even ZN.
The fact that it closed the 8/3 gap (2297.75, and still being picked up as I type) and ES still hasn't (1248), makes me a little weary about placing big downside bets.
On paper, it all looks bad, but keep i mind that what we know, the market already does. Has it priced it in is the billion dollar question.
The whole world watches U.S. stock index markets in the latter stages of an act that only happens once every calendar year on average, or less.
For the past six weeks (completed) and now into its seventh, the S&P 500 futures are winding themselves into a tight consolidation pattern. The term "tight" may be relative, because the weekly range has been roughly 100 index points wide at times. But the overall result is a very crisp bear-flag pattern straight from the books of technical analysis 101.
These formations are continuation patterns and they usually (not always) continue onward in the direction from which they formed. In other words, the prior drop from 1350s to 1150s (middle of the flag formation) is one measured leg down. A second leg of equal measure is usually (not always) what happens next. Should the statistical odds play out in this pending breakout to come, the S&P 950 level is targeted next.
A second technical measure applied is the Fibonacci Extension based from a 1-2-3 high-low-lower high sequence of price movement so far. If current swing highs near 1215 hold and price subsequently breaks lower, a 100% move of that measured range is likewise the 950 zone.
So we see where two (2) different technical studies of price-action measured both arrive at the same mathematical conclusion. Whenever you have two different price measurements overlap in the same general area, that shows you a pretty powerful price magnet of attraction.
Should that general level of magnetic support break thru, price action itself projects to the 800 level or lower from there. It is not out of the question that a test of the March 2009 lows will take place in the medium term future ahead.
This is by no means a short-term outlook at all. What we see on a weekly chart (usually) takes weeks and months to unfold.
Actually, the market doesn't know anything at all, right now today. That's why indexes are seven weeks into a clear consolidation mode with no direction or trend.
Soon the markets will get the information they need to break the stalemate indecision and begin next valuation adjustment (trend) move up or down. But for now the world-wide markets remain stone-cold clueless about what to do next. Hence all the recent light volume whipsaws and chop.
That will change, real soon.
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