Quote from Picaso:
YM? 
Seriously, you see a historic pattern here?
lol. not so much an historic pattern, but a behavioral dynamic that makes sense when you think about it.
True, ES is the 800-lb price discovery gorilla, but ...
-- NQ/NDX represents the high-beta "pure play" core of the ES
-- ES/SPX is a crosswise-with-itself amalgam.
Generally speaking, ES will go where NQ insists ... and, so far today, it's "insisted" DOWN ...
BUT, if ES/SPX acts stubbornly and simply refuses to concede to its high-strung alter ego, its sheer mass wins the day, and NQ/NDX defers to the big boy.
My guess -- just barely my guess -- is that this will be the case today
VWAP dynamics will tell the story, though ...