ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from Laissez Faire:

Stopped out @ 1227. Moved my stop since I knew a sell-off was very unlikely when the market stalled at my entry and the close was nearby. Not a big loss, but I did have a profit that I did not take :(

I`m pretty convinced that my solution is to become more nimble and learn to take 1 point profits and re-enter if the market keeps moving my way. Most moves provide opportunity for re-entry for a nimble trader and the commission costs are not that high.
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Laissez, if you're going to be taking 1 point profits, what are your stops going to be? What winning rate are you going to need to stay ahead? What percentage of your profits are you going to give away in commissions? In slippage?

<i>Sometimes</i> it makes sense to take 1 point in profit, for example if you realize that the market is turning or that the premise on which you based your trade is no longer valid. Now, targeting 1 point in profit as a rule...

(Yes, since you're trading only in the pm, it makes sense to have smaller targets - and tighter stops - than if you were trading all day long, but try to find a sweet spot in between unrealistic targets and trying to scalp for ticks with a retail account). Good luck/skill.
 
Quote from Picaso:

Laissez, if you're going to be taking 1 point profits, what are your stops going to be? What winning rate are you going to need to stay ahead? What percentage of your profits are you going to give away in commissions? In slippage?

<i>Sometimes</i> it makes sense to take 1 point in profit, for example if you realize that the market is turning or that the premise on which you based your trade is no longer valid. Now, targeting 1 point in profit as a rule...

(Yes, since you're trading only in the pm, it makes sense to have smaller targets - and tighter stops - than if you were trading all day long, but try to find a sweet spot in between unrealistic targets and trying to scalp for ticks with a retail account). Good luck/skill.
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Hello Picaso,

I try to use a stop between 1,0-2,0 points. Usually as tight as possible, but sometimes bigger in order to avoid placing stops at obvious places.

Using a 1,0 point profit target and a 1,5 point stop, I would need a 65-70% win rate just to have a positive expectancy (and not a very good one either). Commissions included. I have calculated for slippage in earlier calculations, but in real life I have never experienced any slippage in ES, except positive slippage (one tick on one trade).

I believe that the awareness of this is what sometimes keep me from taking profits when I should. 1,0 point profits and 1,5 point stops is a losing system in the long run unless I can maintain a very high win percentage.

I agree that a "1 point rule" is a bad idea, but I do need to be more flexible. Today for instance, the market really slowed down at my entry level, which should have been a nice tell that price would not break below that level.

Thank you for checking on me. Much appreciated.

Good trading to you as well!

PS: I like to think of it as bad luck when I lose, but skill when I win. Just kidding. Or maybe not :)
 
Quote from Rashid_G.:

Decline comes out of nowhere..
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I wouldn't say that. That 27 area was ES resistance Friday and Sunday, then early support yesterday RTH. The YM balanced perfectly at that same point today with yesterday's morning low. The Dow 390 area was resistance Monday, support yesterday am, then resistance again this am. It was also resistance for the XLF from the afternoon high yesterday. Financials definitely buoyed the market today.
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Stopped out @ 1227. Moved my stop since I knew a sell-off was very unlikely when the market stalled at my entry and the close was nearby. Not a big loss, but I did have a profit that I did not take :(

I`m pretty convinced that my solution is to become more nimble and learn to take 1 point profits and re-enter if the market keeps moving my way. Most moves provide opportunity for re-entry for a nimble trader and the commission costs are not that high.
More...

LF

If you're going to short an intraday bull channel, do it from the top of the channel. But that is always tough, choppy money going against the trend. Why not go long at the bottom of the channel and exit at or near the top? The intraday low was above the AH low, which was above all but one of the prior 30 days low. Same for the NQ. We were not going down without a retest of that 35 area. No way no how.

FWIW, I really don't watch the futures except what I trade: crude, eurusd based on the DXY, and ES. Futures can be manipulated and can lie, but the indices can't and don't. I watch for S/R on the 3 major indices. It's my bread and butter and keeps me out of trouble.

Also, the indices like to finish the day flat or close to it. Play the close, play the channel, make some money.

g
 
However, if you are winning 65 - 75% of the time, then going for 1 point is fine. If you are winning 50%, then you could go for 1.5 stop and 2 point win or something like that.

Quote from Laissez Faire:

Hello Picaso,

I try to use a stop between 1,0-2,0 points. Usually as tight as possible, but sometimes bigger in order to avoid placing stops at obvious places.

Using a 1,0 point profit target and a 1,5 point stop, I would need a 65-70% win rate just to have a positive expectancy (and not a very good one either). Commissions included. I have calculated for slippage in earlier calculations, but in real life I have never experienced any slippage in ES, except positive slippage (one tick on one trade).

I believe that the awareness of this is what sometimes keep me from taking profits when I should. 1,0 point profits and 1,5 point stops is a losing system in the long run unless I can maintain a very high win percentage.

I agree that a "1 point rule" is a bad idea, but I do need to be more flexible. Today for instance, the market really slowed down at my entry level, which should have been a nice tell that price would not break below that level.

Thank you for checking on me. Much appreciated.

Good trading to you as well!

PS: I like to think of it as bad luck when I lose, but skill when I win. Just kidding. Or maybe not :)
More...
 
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