ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[volente_00]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opY4qcidFk

 

[oraclewizard77]

I am thinking you could be right, down on Monday, so we can go up on Tue.

Quote from Pholeuon:

Ok, it is very interesting that until now I never saw intelligent discussion about averaging down/up in ES.

Rule: Never average down at top of channel (overbought), and never average up at bottom of channel (oversold conditions).
This mistake made our young friend.

Howewer, if I look at channel form this is bull flag, and it does not feel like trend change, just like minor correction. I will buy this dip.

Question is just when. It looks so me probably that on Monday will start little panic and we will go bellow todays low.

 

[eMiniFreak]

Quote from ammo:

now 33/4 workin sellers getting more aggressive

I'm curious... what time period did you measure that over? 5 minutes? 15 minutes? Hourly?

 

[No.Heat]

Quote from Pholeuon:

Ok, it is very interesting that until now I never saw intelligent discussion about averaging down/up in ES.

Rule: Never average down at top of channel (overbought), and never average up at bottom of channel (oversold conditions).
This mistake made our young friend.

Howewer, if I look at channel form this is bull flag, and it does not feel like trend change, just like minor correction. I will buy this dip.

Question is just when. It looks so me probably that on Monday will start little panic and we will go bellow todays low.

Averaging down has some problematics, risk of ruin is not a big problem, that can be controlled with a max pain stop loss and problem solved, just like ammo does.

However....

The biggest problematic is that when very wrong you are wrong on full size yet when right you could get rewarded on minimal size and that is definitely a very big problem as in trading you want to have bigger winners when right and smaller ones when wrong, or you wont survive; unless your accuracy is extremely high which is not the norm in trading.

There isnt really a solution to the problem.

I prefer to start in full size and reduce as the market goes against me without killing the position all-together unless the market takes all my scale out stops and I'm flat.

For instance,

LONG MSFT 2000 shares @ 25.00 Target 30 or higher

If 24 reduce to 500
If 23 reduce to 1000
If 22 reduce to flat.

If it rebounds in between and you get your 30 on partial size, so be it, as your original entry was at fault but at least if you were spot on you will be handsomely reward.

Very few speak of such position management when it's really the way of the pros.

It's key to learn how and when to enter. I just told you how, now find the when.

 

[ammo]

Quote from eMiniFreak:

I'm curious... what time period did you measure that over? 5 minutes? 15 minutes? Hourly?

doesnt really matter ,the shapes ,tday flatlining, both lines rising together on a sideways low range day ,crisscrossing more than once ,or crisscrossing and making a reversal, they just help you guess ,narrow down the likely scenarios ,and the ratio as it changes or remains constant , helps you notice intensity or lack of it

 

[ammo]

Quote from eMiniFreak:

I'm curious... what time period did you measure that over? 5 minutes? 15 minutes? Hourly?

a few patterns,the only one not on here is where they crisscross several times in one day

 

[ammo]

i rarely look at prophets during the week so i didnt see this line, if i had i would have covered

 

[ammo]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ar-lending-deposit-rates-25-basis-points.html this is the highest es volume since 10/19 when china raised its rates

 

[ammo]

the es did 69% (1.725,000)of its volume after the initial 8am -10 am slot of 480 k, between 1198 and 1192 with out breaking the tl on a 10/1 down volume day...accumulation?...short covering?

 

[ammo]

there's cleavage on the 3 year weekly that 's too close not to fill, IF we rally