ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from Picaso:

Nice! :)

I don't think ICF is stupid, he's probably a young man with little experience in the markets. Cut him some slack, he'll learn - whether by careful observation and research or by hard experience.
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I am not being hard on anyone, the markets will do that in spades.
traders who have survived know better.
 
Quote from ammo:

credit implosion,i think like the cold war, there is a lot of positioning amongst the den of thieves controlling the world currencies,if/when the positioning doesn't work....or the wolves see a weakness as in bear and lehman a few years back,what 'll keep em from going for the kill
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I don't see it happening, sorry.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

What would be the main driver behind the drop to 500s? I don't see it.
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gridlock, no more stimulus, fed printing like crazy, evetually rates have to rise because of inflation, baby boomer redemptions, no more new money to keep pushing it higher or to maintain current levels.
 
Also, Dems and Reps try to play chicken with each other and Congress doesn't increase the debt ceiling --> US technically defaults --> All hell breaks loose.

Edit: remember when in 2008 they put the TARP to a vote and as they were counting the votes in C-SPAN the Dow fell 700(?) points in a heartbeat? Yes, later it passed, but the damage was done. Ditto here, eventually I don't see how they would have any other choice than to raise the debt ceiling, but if they chose to play games and name calling, well, tighten your seatbealts.
 
Quote from volente_00:

gridlock, no more stimulus, fed printing like crazy, evetually rates have to rise because of inflation, baby boomer redemptions, no more new money to keep pushing it higher or to maintain current levels.
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What about higher rates plus QE? ;)
 
no jobs,homes overpriced,bank holds note,homeowner can't pay,give it back to the bank,same with commercial space,fed prints money,gives to bank,bank holds for r.e. problem,no loans,business stagnates, banks implode, fed,ecb,imf blew its wad, can't help them, meantime original debt multiplied by 4 or 5 times,pick any number, we are already past managing the current multiples,only choice is to downsize debt or default, increasing is liking adding air to a baloon, it eventually bursts...fed is pumping to point where default is the only solution,others do the same, this may be the plan
 
None of us know WHAT is in store for us, but I personally go with a notion that US will continue to have slow growth. To prevent assets inflating out of control short term rates will be raised, but due to US high deficit QE will continue. To stop QE is suicidal at this stage, Republicans understand it too IMO.
 
oversimplified,but suppose we are playing poker in your kitchen,all friends ,avg pocket brings $250,i lose first, i start borrowing from you, then eventually i owe everyone at the table and you are all playing with i.o.u.'s,you find out that my rich uncle just went broke, knowing my wife and kids,weekly income, and bills,most would assume it will take awhile to get the iou's back if ever,risk /reward is dismal,common sense for everyone but me, would force everyone to quit playing, that seems to be missing in the present economic scenario
 
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