ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from tortoise:

I agree. BUT ...

This market is different: It is a tool of the Fed and Treasury to an unprecedented degree. That's why this market will go where D.C. wants it to go, when it wants it there.

Wave's arguments about the 1200 level, Volente's theories about the impact of market makers during opex week, yada-yada ... charming, quaint, utterly irrelevent. The Fed is oblivious to some "trader effect" as it applies to the 1200 level, or any other level. The Fed couldn't give a shit about some SPY option market maker's need to unwind his front-month puts.

This market can be traded, but first you'll need to forget everything you've learned about price discovery, the auction process, gaps, price patterns, max pain, etc., etc.

No, you gotta read the price action, go with the flow, enjoy the ride.

'Til it's over.
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depends on your outlook on the fed, the fed represents the central banks, those banks are run by goldie ,morgan, jpmorgan...this is only conjecture so take it with a grain of salt...the casino's need to pay out 97.5% to keep the customers in there, if they pay out 96.5% the customers drop off, if they pay out 98.5% they go broke, it's calculated down to the tenths of a percent....the market is a big casino,ben or no ben...they naturally pullback and allow the customer to get his dole to keep him coming back,without the customer ,they go broke...it's almost a swiss watch at expiration..they drop it and fatten up the puts,they short em,they rally it to fatten up the calls,they short them..then they pull it back to the middle somewhere and let their fat puts and calls go out worthles or near worthless...last time it didn't happen was sept 09..thats the last time i didnt get a pullback and if i had rolled to dec i would've been all right...not saying it's gonna roll over ..it blew thru all the stops today til 81 es...odds are that the process will repeat . 118 calls in spy went from .97 to .58 from 1:30 cst til close on about 38000 contracts,(appx 34% of the volume of 110,383) you get the gist
 
Hey ammo,

How's it going man? It's been a while. You're spot on about how they keep the retail trader coming for more and play games with option prices. Keep up the good work!
 
ES Bearish Position Trade

1188 6 cars yet to be filled
1219 stop on 3 contracts
1231 stop on 3 contracts

Target 1 1106 1 contract
Target 2 1083 2 contracts

If no stops:

Target 3 Stop adjustment to reduce risk after Target 2
Target 4 To be determined new price action

ESD
 
Quote from W4rl0ck:

A new round of flying monkey operations has already been scheduled by Kommissar Benny into US elections.

Just FYI.
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