ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
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The 12.45 / 12.46 bars on ES were a clear indication to cover. Pleased you got a better price on your second half, but perhaps more work needed on your reasoning for lightening up your position?
Some changes to your trading plan could help you take more points. Look at how you are defining your support areas, and focus on learning the difference between real support and the deliberate illusion of support created to bring in more traders on the wrong side of the market.
1152-53 was an area for shorts to either add to positions or sit tight in anticipation of a break lower.
NQ was a nice easy 10 points during that breakdown...I almost low ticked the move. Simples.
that add on put me over size by 25% and i was looking to shrink my position,just took off 1/2 because of tmmorrows numbers and sheer insanity of this market for the last 3 weeks,i usualy sit tight, there is just too much new manipulation to get used to in such a short time,the dollar dropping like a stone for 1
1) trading plan needs to account for when you are able to add to positions and when not. If you put on too much size you can be emotionally involved in the trade and this can lead you to make the wrong decision as in the above case. Remember that you will take a full loss every time, whether on larger size or not, but if you start getting out too soon due size then you are messing with your odds. What I find helps is using profit as a "cushion" and a justification for adding size later in the day. For example today I nailed the high on Euro on a larger position, and the profits from that allowed me to take an NQ short when I was already full size in the ES.
2) "Sheer insanity of this market for the last 3 weeks". Market never insane....order in everything and everything can be explained with enough knowledge. I know what you are referring to though - the market has been trapping shorts with high velocity momentum downswings which halt and squeeze to new highs, stopping out shorts for a loss. Go back and look at charts with the following question- prior to a short squeeze, does the market typically halt on support, or does it make a false breakout through a support level to trap traders short?
3) Good that you are adapting your trading to what you think the range will be, and taking into account changes in behaviour ... ie the recent propensity of this market to reverse long on a dime.
Hope you (and others?) find the above helpful. It looks like you are getting on well, but always strive to improve your understanding and execution. Here is my bottom call on NQ...hope it inspires some folks.
Perhaps someone would be good enough to post a 1 minute chart of the ES and NQ today so we could look at where the trades set up?
Nov '19 $116 SPY puts are now $3.45, for those following.
Maybe you're right, but at 1340 ET, I think it's premature to call bottom on NQ, particularly with the activity on DX today... DX has long green candles, and short red candles. If that continues, NQ 1995 may not be the lowest we see.
Depends on the timeframe you are trading and your expectation for the move. 12.35 was a clear bottom on all markets and I do not think it would be wise to hold onto shorts there as a day trade. Indeed by reversing on that bar, you could have had an additional 8-10 points out of NQ on the bounce, depending on your timing abilities. Exit is between 13.09 and 13.16 depending on skill.
This isn't to say that we may take out 1995 at some stage in the future, but simply trying to make the most of what is available in terms of range as a day trade.
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