Well I was looking at it from the perspective that usually when it gets quite overbought on the hourly chart, it retraces at least a little bit. Today it did not.
ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
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Well I was looking at it from the perspective that usually when it gets quite overbought on the hourly chart, it retraces at least a little bit. Today it did not.
I see. I don't use overbought/oversold indicators on my futures charts.
I will share with you my highly technical, proprietary method of counter-trend trading: I measure the distance price pulls from the 20-period moving average with a small clear ruler although I've more recently moved up to the next level in that I can now calculate the appropriate distance with my eyes alone.
100% chance you get stopped out at 1150 before we see 900.
Small loss today due to moving my stop down since I changed the risk vs reward. Got stopped out, then market moved down. Need to leave room for trade to breath.
Hi Nodoji,
If you dont mind me picking your brain for a sec, what signaled the 9:50am bar as a long (the bar I'm looking at closed at 1122.25). Or do you mean the next bar that closed at 1124.50? I remember reading something about ORB +6/-6 from your journal, is that what you're talking about here?
Also, the 2nd counter trend signal that formed a lower high at around 1pm - is that a short you would normally consider? Seems kinda risky to me since there was no LL confirmation, but then I'm a noob, and I'm sure there are some signs I'm missing.
Thanks in advance!
There was a micro downtrend leading into the open and the next support level in line to be tested was from the overnight session (1121.25 during the 3:20am ET bar). Price found support at a higher level (1121.50 during the 9:40am ET bar), then broke through previous resistance (1124.50 during the 9:25am bar) and closed above the 20-bar EMA. So that was a counter-trend (counter to the micro trend) long signal, early confirmed. If you're more conservative and need further confirmation you can place a buy stop just above the previous range high (1125.75).
As for the counter-trend short signals, I always consider them because trends can get tired and sometimes retrace 50% or more of the move, but there was so little pullback on ES today, and as you said no confirmation, so I doubt I would've shorted it. Bulls just owned it today. CL on the other hand threw off some decent counter-trend signals.
Mind if I butt in? I saw the 9:45 engulfing bar and subsequent 10:00 am 15 min bar as an impulse move up. Worked it both ways but ultimately ended up short at average of 34 going back to an impulse day on May 18. Time frames and ranges create momo!
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