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ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
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Quote from ammo:
for the record, i have in the past pm'ed with both,and both are decent if not great people and traders,this is just a little testosterone release,spooge
I'll leave it here, right here, in this post and promise never to mention him again. He stalks me on this board with this OI stuff and sends me dozens of PMs. He can't for the life of him accept that I don't assign any significance to it. His boundary got taken for 17 SPX with a week to go.
It takes no skill nor does it imply an edge to assign a range to an underlying. The probability YOU ASSIGN to those barriers is where the skill is involved. Any fool can trade a 1020/1150 double knockout on SPX; but you'll pay 80/100 for the privilege. The probability of success is 80%, so what does that prove? Price = probability. W/o a prob. there is no significance to the call, let alone the relevance of OI in today's market.
IOW, if he had wagered on an SPY 104/110 DNT (or 104/111) in the OTC market he would have lost the entire premium outlay, regardless of the debit paid/potential payout.
uses it as a parameter,don't think he trades options, has mentioned in the past how they had to fatten up the puts and the calls for most profit before returning to inside of parameters.i would guess that gs and jpm,citadel are doing just thatQuote from atticus:
I'll leave it here, right here, in this post and promise never to mention him again. He stalks me on this board with this OI stuff and sends me dozens of PMs. He can't for the life of him accept that I don't assign any significance to it. His boundary got taken for 17 SPX with a week to go.
It takes no skill nor does it imply an edge to assign a range to an underlying. The probability YOU ASSIGN to those barriers is where the skill is involved. Any fool can trade a 1020/1150 double knockout on SPX; but you'll pay 80/100 for the privilege. The probability of success is 80%, so what does that prove?
IOW, if he had wagered on an SPY 104/110 DNT in the OTC market he would have lost the entire premium outlay, regardless of the debit paid/potential payout.
Quote from ammo:
uses it as a parameter,don't think he trades options, has mentioned in the past how they had to fatten up the puts and the calls for most profit before returning to inside of parameters.i would guess that gs and jpm,citadel are doing just that
I'm certain he doesn't trade them. My point is that the boundary-range TRADES in the OTC market every day, and his range would have resulted in 100% loss of premium. "Rough range = highly probable" resulted in a 100% loss in this example. Assume (I do not) that there is some value in the OI. The strategy blew up in September 2010.
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