ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[austinp]

A trader I work with who up until recently followed this thread religiously asked me what to think of in his words, "all hell breaking loose here" [unquote]

Well first of all, that's a little extreme. I was actually disappointed to see nothing much happened here in this thread at all. Far cry from the days of 2006 ~ 2007 when the really rabid trolls still stalked every thread.

But here's a few absolute facts for any serious or aspiring traders to keep in mind:

#1: Nobody without exception ever made consistent money flipping trades around in the ES specifically or any other symbol in general. That has never happened in the past, does not happen today and will never happen in the future. What people want to believe and wish were true is far different than cold, hard reality staring us in the face.

#2: Nobody without exception ever made consistent money in futures markets, ES or otherwise from the long-side only while averaging down to oblivion. Again, that has never happened in the past, does not happen today and will never happen in the future. What people want to believe and wish were true is far different than cold, hard reality staring us in the face.

Anyone here doubt that wasn't tried x 10,000 real, living, rabid-bull traders from April 2000 onward to their fiscal deaths?

I was there, and I saw it all in color. Go back ten years and look at those charts. We saw them again in 2008. We will see them again someday.

Any questions on whether long-only and buy all the way down will build a career?

#3: Nobody without exception ever made consistent money in futures markets, ES or otherwise seeking +1pt profits while averaging down to oblivion as markets run deep against.

#4: Nobody without exception ever made consistent money in any financial markets by blindly following aka "backing" anonymous message board posters. Pretty sure we don't need to elaborate on that fact.

**

ET stands for Entertaining Traders. I still maintain this is the premiere public trader's forum and doesn't seem to have a close second behind it. But anyone who comes here thinking they can follow someone who will lead them thru the entire scope of a trader's minefield to success is sadly deluded or grossly mistaken.

So caveat emptor applies here more than anywhere else. Beware the advice you take and consider the sources... "free advice" is usually the most costly of all.

fwiw I made money in two of three symbols today for net-gain overall. I have blotters to back it up, and anyone who cares to look can easily find them. So take this advice for what it's worth, and good luck either way

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from austinp:

Nobody without exception ever made consistent money in any financial markets by blindly following aka "backing" anonymous message board posters.

That is because those bastards can't keep up the consistency! (And it also explains why would anybody keep posting consistent winners for a long time for free....)

I mean EMG used to be a goldmine, and there it was, 3 sucky calls today in a row...

But most people are missing the point of participating in a message board. The important part isn't what a poster does in real life, but what a reader takes away from a post. You can do 4 things with a post:

1. Learn from it. This is the best value, because even when the OP passes/goes away, the knowledge stays. Permanent gains.

2. Backing the trade up. Next best value, but hard to choose whom to back up. The gain is only temporary, although real.

3. Entertainment. If nothing else, you might get a chukle out of certain posters.

4. Ignore it. If a post doesn't have any of the previous 3 values, it is just better ignore it....

And that's why it is rather worthless to post a bunch of quick scalping trades. It doesn't teach the reader anything and impossible to back them up because of the delay, so the most a reader can get out of it is some kind of entertainment...

The very best posts are those that EXPLAINS why the poster made that trade. An example would be:

Quote from Pekelo on 8/23:

There is a possibility of dragon Failure around 1079 ES. That is also the SMA 9 line on cash, the usual boundary. Until we convincingly clear that, we might fail and since the Height is 30 pts, we would get down to 1050ish...

Edit: So far it looks like we are having a Failure, down to 1074. Short 1074 SL 1081 T 1050 sounds a good r/r....

Here it was everything, a real time entry, a target, a stop loss, but beside those, I explained the REASON for the trade...Not to mention although I exited that trade early, it did go down to 1050...

 

[JSSPMK]

Pek, you are fixated with the word consistent. When you start trading real money, you will realize that clusters of bad trades are almost unavoidable. It is how you deal with losing streaks what is important. As if one gets overly confident & cocky those losing streaks can literally end it for a trader.

 

[Thundershock]

The reason why so many people fail at daytrading futures is not only do you need to have a good strategy that works a large % of the time, but you also need to have a stop loss strategy that works too. The latter part is the harder thing to do because not only do you have to have that exit point but it is against human nature to be a loser. Yet being a loser is precisely what you must be at times.
Many people also get so happy when they have a gain, that they pull the trigger too fast.

That is why, whenever you make a trade, you have to have a target, a stop loss and most importantly, you have to stick with them no matter what.

 

[joeyata1]

weres vol? i want to know what his wide 50 pt ranges are. austin p is 100% correct. take it from me who's been full time for 21 years.nobody on the face of this earth can make money scalping 1 -2 pt hits on the es. its not possible period.people on this site want to believe in fairy tales.

 

[Thundershock]

Joeyata, why do you think it's not possible to do 1-2 point scalps vs. larger moves? Just because you said that, I'm going to do my best to prove you wrong although I do agree that it's easier to do larger scale trades.

 

[joeyata1]

Thunder its the nature of the beast. Theres so much jiggle in the es of 1-3 pts in radomness its just nearly impossible over time to make it work with slippage and commissions.I shouldn't say its impossible but its very very very hard.to succeed one must take the jiggle out of it and that requires taking a little heat at times which means one must be well capitalized. for me i'll scale in 1-3 times and have a 5-10 pt stop and its worked well for me over the years.when the action is sloppy like the last few months i'll go against the trend both long and short as the mkt is having a difficult time sustaining any move either up or down.as trends develop both up and down in longer time frames such as 2008 on the short side or late 2009 on the long side i'll stick with trend more buying dips and shorting pops.

 

[pokito]

Quote from Thundershock:

The reason why so many people fail at daytrading futures is not only do you need to have a good strategy that works a large % of the time, but you also need to have a stop loss strategy that works too. The latter part is the harder thing to do because not only do you have to have that exit point but it is against human nature to be a loser. Yet being a loser is precisely what you must be at times.
Many people also get so happy when they have a gain, that they pull the trigger too fast.

That is why, whenever you make a trade, you have to have a target, a stop loss and most importantly, you have to stick with them no matter what.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from Nexen:

And the frosty on the cake, the T day and Rule of 10 massive stupidity.

Do you even trade ?


Where are your trades ?


Where is your p&l?


Where are your methods ?



Can you back them up with factual data or are you just another bitch taking pop shots at those who can ?


Wonder what this means ?


"Thanks for this study. I remember I emailed you several months ago hoping you could test the "T-Day Theory" and this test is along those lines."




http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2009/01/turnaround-tuesdays.html




And this guy is a piker too


http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=3143




And those idiots in the pit don't know anything either



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe0bQ2g1frs



And while we are venting can anyone tell me why atticus will never post a straight unhedged trade and instead post ambiguous synthetic straddles collar butterfly arb trades ?


Hell I would have a 100% win rate too if I only took hedged trades that were so complicated that 95% of et readers can't tell you what his net postion is.


And why did he put me on ignore after I told him spy options on Aug 20 th said we would trade 104-110 for sept and we then traded 104.3-111?


Guess he got his little ego bruised and decided to run and hide instead of face the facts.



And is pekelo the king of armchair quarterbacks or what ?


Does he even trade a real account ?


What kind of post is we may make a dragon and might do this and could do this ?

And then comes after the close and post about more dragons that he did not see.


If something is tradeable and has criteria, then why can't he see it as it happens ?


If the damn inventor of the pattern can't even see the dragon, how the hell does he expect for those who are trying to learn it to see it ?





So who did we forget ?







So why do I still post here after 8 years ?

Quote from Pekelo:

1. Learn from it. This is the best value, because even when the OP passes/goes away, the knowledge stays. Permanent gains.

02-28-09 04:30 AM
Sincere thanks
Hi volente,
Read your last post in ES journal and I was compelled to pm you. I personally would like to thank you for all you have contributed in ET, for I have learnt more from you than I have from all my time as an emini newbie. R10 is a gem, among all the other stuff and the daily commentary in the ES journal.
Your posts and people like LC, Pekelo and others keep the dream in us alive. I know I will succeed because I am learning from people like you.
I started in the eminis by paying for a course, now I trade better than the trainer scam.
So thank you and hope to reach a level of competence that I can also pay forward. God bless you and please keep posting.
Sincerely,
XXXX




And many more saved in my pm box over the years from people who appreciate a person with talent who takes time in exchange for nothing to help them become a better trader.



And now it's time for my famous pekelo post




Can you guys believe we went 1102 to 1112 today before we fell back down to 1101 ?

I reckon that was about 2 10 points of movement for some reason.


And why did DEMTDAYBOYZ close us green ?



Not sure how I missed these.





So keep on drinking that haterade because in the end it only reinforces the truth.







"Great spirits have always found violent opposition from mediocre minds.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from joeyata1:

weres vol? i want to know what his wide 50 pt ranges are. austin p is 100% correct. take it from me who's been full time for 21 years.nobody on the face of this earth can make money scalping 1 -2 pt hits on the es. its not possible period.people on this site want to believe in fairy tales.

Come on piggie,
You do realize that the majority of the locals in the spoo pit trade this strategy. They scalp all day long and don't try to hit homeruns.

So are you saying they can't do it either ?


I am going to send tofu instead of ribeye because I don't want your wife pissed at me if I contribute to your arteries clogging.