ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from ASusilovic:

GDP consensus according to Bloomberg 1.3 %.

Consumer sentiment expected 69.6.

As I see it the numbers have already been handed around to Wall Street. Otherwise this sell-off today doesn´t make "sense"...But hey, since when must anything related to Wall Street make sense ??? :cool:
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you mean it wasn't Jcrew's guidance, bring back turtleneck sweaters. I agree though, its always fascinating how the news cycle turns, now every piece of news is death and gloom, touch of 40 on the vix does not seem out of the question with all the built in fear.
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

you mean it wasn't Jcrew's guidance, bring back turtleneck sweaters. I agree though, its always fascinating how the news cycle turns, now every piece of news is death and gloom, touch of 40 on the vix does not seem out of the question with all the built in fear.
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VIX ? Goldmans was a huge vola seller 3 weeks ago and covered at 22 and better. Now, that GDP figures are expected to be much worse than 2 month ago everybody is long vola - JP Morgan included.

Doom and gloom reports en masse have surfaced through the various media sources : Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, WSJ.

Journalists are eagerly reporting "the world is going under" stories. It sells better and earns them a couple of $ as they are also betting their journalists $$$$ on a downturn.

Everybody is happy - only the US worker NOT.
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

Otherwise this sell-off today doesn´t make "sense"...
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If we are talking about the last 30 minutes (51-42) I have an explanation. There was a dragon Failure. Best seen on the 5 days / hourly chart. First bottom was yesterday at 1040 cash, 2nd bottom today at 1045. The Height is about 22 pts, and the Failure came a little bit early at 1053, but right on the SMA 9 (again, hourly chart).

Now the rule is that the math should be done from the theoretical Failure, which should have happened about 3 pts higher. So the 3rd bottom tomorrow is 1056-22= 1034...

We shall see....

Edit: On second thought, maybe the 2nd bottom should have gone lower by 3+ pts, making it more classic double bottom, so the 3rd bottom is expected from the real Failure 1053-22=1031...
 
Quote from schizo:

Well, you don't know how many times I gave back my profit in the last 2 weeks. With some trades, I was up more than 10 points. There has been a few times when I even lost money.

The problem could have been avoided had I just took the damn profit at reasonable targets.

With that said, I ALWAYS have hard targets in mind when trade is initiated, and that seems to be working against me at the moment. If you have specific suggestions, I'm all ears.
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Sounds like what I was bitching about on the cl thread last week. Try setting a time for the trade, as in I will hold it for 1hr or whatever your time frame is. I had to look a gifted horse in the mouth 4times today before I bailed. Im hardheaded as hell.
 
I made so far 30 pips on a EUR short. Closed 1/2 my position, no target on rest, and set stop around BE point. Looking for continued weakness on Friday and would like to bring stop down with trend.
 
Why the US markets are taking so long to crash -

Ok weekly sma fans, you may remember a post I made back in Apr about the SPX stopping at the 200 wk sma as seen here -

http://bit.ly/bPrCE4

Here's another one for NDX that helps explain what's holding the markets up so far -

http://bit.ly/czZRcT

and what could trigger the dump.

Actually it's looking a little queasy right now. :D
 
Quote from schizo:

Well, you don't know how many times I gave back my profit in the last 2 weeks. With some trades, I was up more than 10 points. There has been a few times when I even lost money.

The problem could have been avoided had I just took the damn profit at reasonable targets.

With that said, I ALWAYS have hard targets in mind when trade is initiated, and that seems to be working against me at the moment. If you have specific suggestions, I'm all ears.
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Scale out 1/2 and move stop to breakeven.

That way a winner will never turn into a loser and if your homerun finally shows you still get some of the action.
 
Quote from volente_00:

1050 cash sets up an inverted IHS on a 3 month chart


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So far the bears have not won the battle.


Going to be interesting after labor day when volume comes back.
 
Quote from pokito:

ES 47.75 now, see some movement ...anything going on in europe or asia?...I don't see anything in the schedule..
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DEMTDAYBOYZ snuck in for some cheap contracts.



:)
 
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