ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
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Let's address this issue, because it is important...
In the original 2nd gap rule thread I posted an example on 3/4/08 when the 2nd gap closed just before the open, but never in RTH:
"Last Friday we had a runaway downgap, meaning the gap never got fill during the day and we closed much lower. Then during Sunday night we went even lower, thus we had our 2nd consecutive gap. Sure enough it got filled just before the open, and the market tanked from there."
The point here is that an overnight gapfill lowers the probability of the RTH fill. It still could happen, but not guaranteed as much as without an overnight fill.
Today is going to be a good test of this...My theory is that closer the overnight gapfill is to RTH, the less likely to have the fill in RTH again....Since we had the fill before 4 am, quite far away from 9:30, I think we have a good chance of a full RTH fill.
In the original 2nd gap rule thread I posted an example on 3/4/08 when the 2nd gap closed just before the open, but never in RTH:
"Last Friday we had a runaway downgap, meaning the gap never got fill during the day and we closed much lower. Then during Sunday night we went even lower, thus we had our 2nd consecutive gap. Sure enough it got filled just before the open, and the market tanked from there."
The point here is that an overnight gapfill lowers the probability of the RTH fill. It still could happen, but not guaranteed as much as without an overnight fill.
Today is going to be a good test of this...My theory is that closer the overnight gapfill is to RTH, the less likely to have the fill in RTH again....Since we had the fill before 4 am, quite far away from 9:30, I think we have a good chance of a full RTH fill.
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