ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Messing myself up. I went short on ES around 1108.25, and then the trade went against me so took 1 contract off at .25 loss, and decided to hedge going long on CL. Then ES started going down, so killed my CL hedge at a 5 tick loss, and final contract on ES went to profit earning me $ 2.50 for the trade.

Lesson of that story, is don't hedge a trade, but taking off 1 contract near BE is fine if trade is going against you.

After that got a decent setup on CL long at a lower level, and took it for 10 ticks of profit, which was fine since CL is now falling more.

Took one of my AUG SPY puts off at a profit, plan on leaving the other put on either for later today or longer, I don't know if we will get follow through on Monday morning or not for bearish trend.

Obviously, in hindsight, I should have shorted ES overnight, but I have done that before and got burned on either earnings or reports, so I felt the puts were safer.

Feel free to comment if you think 1125 was the high for the market, and if you think its going to continue tanking on Monday, or if bulls to strong.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

And whenever that happened, the mkt can at most go 20 pts against them, and then it will magically go their way 50+ pts.

It's been like that for a long time ... :cool:
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Magically ? :D
 
Well, I am up for the day both on futures and puts, market seems frozen. I am thinking of calling it a day, and keeping my final put for Monday to see if we can trend down to 1080.

I am switching to sim now. I had a good short on the EUR, but killed that trade at a 1 tick gain even though it fell more since it seemed frozen and a forex trader was mentioning that Europe was stronger than the USA right now.

I feel taking any more trades in my current mental state would not be conductive to profits since I have been second guessing my profitable trades.
 
Quote from oraclewizard77:

Messing myself up. I went short on ES around 1108.25, and then the trade went against me so took 1 contract off at .25 loss, and decided to hedge going long on CL. Then ES started going down, so killed my CL hedge at a 5 tick loss, and final contract on ES went to profit earning me $ 2.50 for the trade.

Lesson of that story, is don't hedge a trade, but taking off 1 contract near BE is fine if trade is going against you.

After that got a decent setup on CL long at a lower level, and took it for 10 ticks of profit, which was fine since CL is now falling more.

Took one of my AUG SPY puts off at a profit, plan on leaving the other put on either for later today or longer, I don't know if we will get follow through on Monday morning or not for bearish trend.

Obviously, in hindsight, I should have shorted ES overnight, but I have done that before and got burned on either earnings or reports, so I felt the puts were safer.

Feel free to comment if you think 1125 was the high for the market, and if you think its going to continue tanking on Monday, or if bulls to strong.
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Quote from volente_00:

As long as you can handle the heat to 1069 cash when they do decide to fill the gap


We are on the high end of the range here and spy options indicate a move back down to fill those gaps.


I'd put a top on cash at 1140, with 1130 being more likely before this happens.
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Quote from oraclewizard77:

Feel free to comment if you think 1125 was the high for the market, and if you think its going to continue tanking on Monday, or if bulls to strong.
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I think we have a teddy bear. We may retrace to 1112 or maybe up to 20 but I doubt it - any more than that and teddy looses his stuffing. Then, if we fall again, I thnk we will have a black bear - still a little insecure, but big enough to tear a strip.

If we break 1100 convincingly - say 1097 - we should see 1075-70 before it turns into a brown bear and will take alot of bull to turn it around.

I haven't decided at what point it turns grizzly, somewhere below 1000.

Just my Friday afternoon B.S. - worthless opinion really.
 
Quote from oraclewizard77:

Messing myself up. I went short on ES around 1108.25, and then the trade went against me so took 1 contract off at .25 loss, and decided to hedge going long on CL. Then ES started going down, so killed my CL hedge at a 5 tick loss, and final contract on ES went to profit earning me $ 2.50 for the trade.

Lesson of that story, is don't hedge a trade, but taking off 1 contract near BE is fine if trade is going against you.

After that got a decent setup on CL long at a lower level, and took it for 10 ticks of profit, which was fine since CL is now falling more.

Took one of my AUG SPY puts off at a profit, plan on leaving the other put on either for later today or longer, I don't know if we will get follow through on Monday morning or not for bearish trend.

Obviously, in hindsight, I should have shorted ES overnight, but I have done that before and got burned on either earnings or reports, so I felt the puts were safer.

Feel free to comment if you think 1125 was the high for the market, and if you think its going to continue tanking on Monday, or if bulls to strong.
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so far the price action is bearish, I would love to see a test of 1100 spx today to shake out the weak longs. Doesn't look like buyers are around based on price action. es S3 is 1097.75. bottom line there may be no bounce today and it is a risky trade to go long so have a stop and honor it.

edit: didn't see panama's post, funny how 1097 came up.
 

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Quote from Panama:

I think we have a teddy bear. We may retrace to 1112 or maybe up to 20 but I doubt it - any more than that and teddy looses his stuffing. Then, if we fall again, I thnk we will have a black bear - still a little insecure, but big enough to tear a strip.

If we break 1100 convincingly - say 1097 - we should see 1075-70 before it turns into a brown bear and will take alot of bull to turn it around.

I haven't decided at what point it turns grizzly, somewhere below 1000.

Just my Friday afternoon B.S. - worthless opinion really.
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MM is not a bear. It's a very large reptile.
 
I think we got close to your 1130 target, when market went to 1126. I would be surprised if we can reverse the current down trend today in the short term.

I think economic reports create these trends, which then can be traded assuming trading with real money does not mess with your mind.

So I just don't see the market getting back up there without going down under 1100 during the next week.

However, I am willing to allow my put to get stopped out at BE if I am wrong, since right now I am playing with the market's money and the bulls are on the ropes.

I was thinking last night when ES and CL were going up, no way they know the results of the US report in Europe, and anyone that held too long is now trapped, and ready for more pain. Also, good contrary sign was all the posters here claiming ES was going to continue up today.
 
On my charts ES broke the bottom of uptrend channel but SPY is on the bottom. I do not see bulls case definitely lost if we will not go down. Problem is that we can not close gap and stay in channel.
There will be another possible bottom of practically horizontal channel at 109.50 SPY. If we break it we go down, I guess to 1050 approximately. If we can end today above 1114 I think bulls are saved.
 
The trouble with the market right here is that damn short bus trying to get on the boat. They're on, and trying to swamp the damn thing but they don't know that bus riders are not allowed on the voyage. Do they think it's a ferry!
 
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