ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
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Now that I look back on my charts, I can see we were in down trend when I started trading.
What confused me was that when I opened yahoo finance, the S&P 500 was still positive by around 4 points. So I thought we were just having a pullback in an uptrend.
However, by drawing lines on my chart now, I can see we were actually in a trend channel headed lower.
Now, my thought during the day after I previously got stopped out was that when the market was at 1114, it would close down to the 1110 gap. Instead of just taking that as a short trade, I decided it would be better to go long at 1110, but the market then of course went lower.
At 1106, I was thinking the market would trade back up to 1110, so I did get long around 1107 after already taking a previous winner at 1106, but the market then 1st made a new low at 1103.25, and was stopped out on that trade.
As the market did start going back up, I pared my losses by getting long but cut some of winners as I got into another 3 contract trade instead of at least letting 1 contract go all the way to 1110.
So overall a losing day where I over traded and averaged down, and did not let some winners go all the way. I see my mistakes and I do feel I got a little unlucky when the market hit 1114.50 which was my stop before going back up on a nice swing.
What confused me was that when I opened yahoo finance, the S&P 500 was still positive by around 4 points. So I thought we were just having a pullback in an uptrend.
However, by drawing lines on my chart now, I can see we were actually in a trend channel headed lower.
Now, my thought during the day after I previously got stopped out was that when the market was at 1114, it would close down to the 1110 gap. Instead of just taking that as a short trade, I decided it would be better to go long at 1110, but the market then of course went lower.
At 1106, I was thinking the market would trade back up to 1110, so I did get long around 1107 after already taking a previous winner at 1106, but the market then 1st made a new low at 1103.25, and was stopped out on that trade.
As the market did start going back up, I pared my losses by getting long but cut some of winners as I got into another 3 contract trade instead of at least letting 1 contract go all the way to 1110.
So overall a losing day where I over traded and averaged down, and did not let some winners go all the way. I see my mistakes and I do feel I got a little unlucky when the market hit 1114.50 which was my stop before going back up on a nice swing.
Ask yourself why you thought it was better to go long at 1110.00. Was there an actual price action signal that indicated 1110.00 was a price at which to go long? I don't see one at any point in time today. When 1110.00 breaks down, price never even breaks back above it (until the very end of the day). That means no long signal at 1110.00.
At 1106.00 why did you think it would trade up to 1110.00? Was there a price action signal that indicated that? I see a potential signal where a long might have taken you to 1110.00. The close of the 3:25pm bar was a long signal for aggressive longs. The 3:30pm bar was also a long signal for aggressive longs. But you end up stopped out for a scratch or a small loss, which is the price early longs and shorts often pay in exchange for sometimes getting a better entry price than if you wait for confirmation. (Or you place a very wide stop and take more risk, but possibly stay in the trade and get your 1110.00 target).
Did you average down in the direction of the trend or against the trend? There's a big difference. If, say, the trend is down and price is in the midst of a pullback and you're not sure if the pullback will be very shallow or if it will make it back up to the 20 MA, averaging down during the pullback is a common with-trend tactic. But averaging down against the prevailing trend, assuming price will eventually turn and make you profitable is best left to the professionals like ammo who, very early in my futures trading career, told me "Don't try this at home."
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