ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from oraclewizard77:

I was able to get out of my spy JUNE 109 put today at BE, and I just now bought the SPY 110 put for around the same price I previously paid for the 109. Stop is always the cost of the put, and target for this put is around 2 points.
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I don't play options, but just how do you determine which strike price is the best to play as a intraday trader? Do you automatically choose the one with the most active volume or one close to the underlying?
 
6-2-10 Close [1096.75] will offer support (as a guide) to the market tomorrow only. The logic is simple and you can play it 3 ways:

1) Wait for tomorrow to close and evaluate the results THEN If Friday, 6-4-10 closes under 1096.75, the market will rally back Monday, possibly a multi day rally beyond this level. Take your position accordingly.

2) EOD today, place a LMT Buy order in at 1096.75 and use a generous stop (this one I don't like).

3) Wait for RTH to open tomorrow and evaluate price. All the while understanding that 1096.75 is a number that wants to support price or have price revert back to it after a fast sell off. Then find your opportunity based on your trading signals.

Tomorrow is the jobs report. This obviously is gonna create some fast movements SO I am bent towards a wait and see approach and let the day close out...I am always am...but this guide is great to have in the back of your head. It is create off of the ES continuous contract. I will post the actual guide separate in a while.

NOTE: Possible IF/THEN and how I would handle it:

If we gap up tomorrow at open, price will most likely revert back to today's RTH open (1101.50). I would sell to this level and exit. But we may see continued weakness to 1096.75, So I wait and watch. I would then evaluate what I think price is going to do based on real time analysis. If I think price is going to wash out for the day I would take option 1 and wait to trade a rebound on Monday/Tues next week. If price is obviously showing it wants to swing long for the remainder of the day, I would try to position myself accordingly.

Obviously, anything can happen. This is just a scenario and their plenty of others.

Remember these are guides that create these levels for me and they are not signals that I use to fire off trades to create my P&L. However, these guides can be used to trade with discretion. There are SO many reliable things the ES does that can show you in advance IF/THEN scenarios.
 
Ok so at some point today or Monday all of this drop and anything after my post right now is coming back, this drop isn't going to stick long term...1096.75 is a magnetic and we busted through that, the market is going to want to revert back to this and beyond, soon enough...

...would be great to see this drop to the 1050 area and allow a fast 50 point swing up...but beggars cant be choosers, either way, if it continues to drop and take out 1032 area (probably not) but if it does that is great for the bull(ies) out there and bad for the head and shoulder's doom and gloom crew...either way, watch and wait, knowing that there is upside and soon...be patient.

**This drop is part of my ES continuous contract outside day guide...see previous posts.** Sell Short 1099 area, exit at 1068 area...that is what the guide was telling us...

Good trading to you today, it should be fun!
 
Quote from petty1978:


2) EOD today, place a LMT Buy order in at 1096.75 and use a generous stop (this one I don't like).

3)
If we gap up tomorrow at open, price will most likely revert back to today's RTH open (1101.50). I would sell to this level and exit. But we may see continued weakness to 1096.75, So I wait and watch. I would then evaluate what I think price is going to do based on real time analysis. If I think price is going to wash out for the day I would take option 1 and wait to trade a rebound on Monday/Tues next week. If price is obviously showing it wants to swing long for the remainder of the day, I would try to position myself accordingly.

Obviously, anything can happen.

.
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The last paragraph is the ONLY one that makes sense...

IF...is the most powerful word in the traders' language....just cannot go wrong:confused:

I personally do not see any benefit of providing either/or scenarios if there is no trade commitment behind them..

Sorry Robert...this is really pointless....and the end result is "zilch"

NiN
 
Folks we even have a nice little gap between bar opens on the 30m bars, 8:00am est and 8:30am est...right at the 1096 price level...further evidence that after this wash out, buying will come in...granted alone this means nothing "really" but coupled with other things it's blatantly telling you to watch for the market to rebound.
 
Quote from petty1978:

Folks we even have a nice little gap between bar opens on the 30m bars, 8:00am est and 8:30am est...right at the 1096 price level...further evidence that after this wash out, buying will come in...granted alone this means nothing "really" but coupled with other things it's blatantly telling you to watch for the market to rebound.
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A second gap lower would be perfect for a rebound.
 
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