ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[HuggieBear]

I think people got spooked because the oil leak top kill failed (it appears)...could end up being a multi-month disaster with much more serious ramifications if true.


I could be wrong that this is what caused the selloff, but i noticed it happened at about the same time.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from ammo:

Quote from volente_00:

cash hit 200 day average


High probability of a pullback to 1088 min on futures [/QUOTEthanks,]that is useful

 

[Pekelo]

I think Friday's 2nd half with the Spain news and drop should be treated as an aberration*. So if you don't take that 10-12 pts drop into account, but push the 2nd half of the day upward by a good 10 pts, then we get that we did hit 1108 around 3:30.
The early 1090.5 low wouldn't have been breached again and we would have got a nice sideways consolidation (with a +7 -8 pts range) as it was expected after Thursday rally, closing down only by -3 pts or less...
The SMA 9 on the daily acted as support, that's where we bounced from in the morning, and right now we are sitting on it. Generally we would go higher the next day...(SMA bounce)

*aberration: when breaking news messes up the technicals

 

[Now is Now]

Quote from Pekelo:

I think Friday's 2nd half with the Spain news and drop should be treated as an aberration*. So if you don't take that 10-12 pts drop into account, but push the 2nd half of the day upward by a good 10 pts, then we get that we did hit 1108 around 3:30.
The early 1090.5 low wouldn't have been breached again and we would have got a nice sideways consolidation (with a +7 -8 pts range) as it was expected after Thursday rally, closing down only by -3 pts or less...
The SMA 9 on the daily acted as support, that's where we bounced from in the morning, and right now we are sitting on it. Generally we would go higher the next day...(SMA bounce)

*aberration: when breaking news messes up the technicals

IF...is the most powerful word in the English language....(Disraeli)


NiN

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Quote from Pekelo:

I think Friday's 2nd half with the Spain news and drop should be treated as an aberration*. So if you don't take that 10-12 pts drop into account, but push the 2nd half of the day upward by a good 10 pts, then we get that we did hit 1108 around 3:30.
The early 1090.5 low wouldn't have been breached again and we would have got a nice sideways consolidation (with a +7 -8 pts range) as it was expected after Thursday rally, closing down only by -3 pts or less...
The SMA 9 on the daily acted as support, that's where we bounced from in the morning, and right now we are sitting on it. Generally we would go higher the next day...(SMA bounce)

*aberration: when breaking news messes up the technicals

On monday,

A gap open below 80 means retest of year low and possibly new low for the year - weekly failure to fill gap is extremely bearish.

Of course, if they successfully stage another 30 pts gap up, we have an island below, pointing to a rally back to year high.

 

[HuggieBear]

we'll see...the prospect of that oil well gushing at full throttle for another 6 - 9 months into the GoM is likely to put a damper on any party.


the situation is quickly moving from tragic to catastrophic.

 

[schizo]

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

On monday,

A gap open below 80 means retest of year low and possibly new low for the year - weekly failure to fill gap is extremely bearish.

Of course, if they successfully stage another 30 pts gap up, we have an island below, pointing to a rally back to year high.

I reckon that Uncle Bernie and his foot soldier, Geithner, will not just stand idle and let the market come undone, effectively reversing the last 15 months of hard work in erecting their own Tower of Babel.

C'mon, we've been through this same crap before.

 

[ammo]

they need to get flat once in a while and take it down to reload. the spain downgrade and almost every other news release is is timed to there music sheet,we need to keep the mind open to the possibility of conspiracies being possible,believing they never happen is as foolish as thinking they always happen..funny how the euro is just sitting there like humpty dumpty weighting to fall,no one can agree on a solution and the markets holding up

 

[schizo]

Quote from ammo:

they need to get flat once in a while and take it down to reload. the spain downgrade and almost every other news release is is timed to there music sheet,we need to keep the mind open to the possibility of conspiracies being possible,believing they never happen is as foolish as thinking they always happen..funny how the euro is just sitting there like humpty dumpty weighting to fall,no one can agree on a solution and the markets holding up

Exactly and, against everyone's better judgement (including the circus of media whore), here was the reason that I believe created the infamous Flash Crash. Now that Uncle Sam is flush with cash, I doubt they'll just stand back and watch the market crash again. Well, that's where I stand as far as conspiracy theory goes.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100526/ap_on_bi_ge/us_treasury_citigroup

 

[Ramp]

Like most here, I trade one day at a time but here is tidbits of Prechter's long-term EWT/cycle based bearish scenario from April for anyone interested.