ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[oraclewizard77]

Just curious, do most of you have win% above 50% or below 50%, and if below, is it because your winners are bigger than your losers?

My win% is very high, but a losing trade so far will be a higher $ amt than a winning trade.

 

[schizo]

Quote from petty1978:

Schizo-the proof is in the pudding. many people complicate trading and I have a certain skill-set to uncomplicated it. At the core of it all you could give me a running ticker showing time/price for a contract, pencil, paper and I can derive trades. It is just how I learned to trade and it works for me and a lot of other professional traders.

This is valuable to people who do not know how to trade and/or struggling. In no way am I trying to waltz in here and tell you how to trade.

I am here to help, thats all. But your candor and criticism is needed as well, to offer other readers of my post another perspective, so thank you for being one of those voices.

It is why open forums work and naturally weed out bull crap.

It was more of an encouragement than a criticism. If you believe that others could benefit from your insight, why not simply create a thread and let the whole world know about it?

Another problem with this place is that there are too many damn market analysts and not enough real traders. Even your biggest admirer (who else but Mr. Pekelo?) was never able to make the distinction between the two.

 

[HuggieBear]

Schiz


I neglected to say something earlier, but your call on the ES today was eerily freakin accurate. You have been pretty on fire in your calls the last couple of weeks.

Hope you have capitalized on that in your trading...

 

[petty1978]

Quote from schizo:

Frankly, most of it doesn't make sense to me and I've been trading for 20 years.

I have been trading for 5 years but we all start out with different core foundations. And learn at different paces. So I don't expect you to "get" what I'm showing you. These concepts are not taught publicly as a "whole". Obviously separately, there is nothing special about the ingredients I use but combined and analyzed a certain way, you get interesting results.

The way I trade is very simple in concept. Very teachable and not about talking the "lingo" the trading world loves to throw around. Talk is cheap, but you already know that schizo being a 20 year vet.

For example here is the QM set-up per your request, I will show LONG set-up, a short set-up is just the reverse of this logic.

***In order to accurately set this up you need to be looking at the QM or CL continuous contract*** you need all overnight data.

(3 day set-up. Bar construction is paramount)

For explanation purposes I will refer to bars 1,2,3 and 3 being the most recent bar, the day the trade is initiated. **SEE CHART**

Day 1 bar set up: Open < Close, Open < High, Close > Low, Median point (1 bar MA, H+L/2) < Open and > Close
[Basically this is a long body candle with wicks and the median point located withing the body.]

Day 2 bar set up: Open < Close, Open < High, Close > Low, Median point (1 bar MA, H+L/2) < Open and > Close
[Basically this is a long body candle with wicks and the median point located withing the body.]

NOW the relationship between Bar 1 and Bar 2:

Bar 2 has to open inside the wick of Bar 1
Bar 2 High has to be less than the close of Bar 1
Bar 2 has to close < the low of Bar 1.

BASICALLY you want 2 properly constructed wide range bodied down candles, consecutive days.

NOW the relationship between Bar 2 and Bar 3:

Bar 3 has to open inside of Bar 2's range. It must drop and tick below the low of Bar 2.

At the low of Bar 2, after a tick or two under this low, Buy to the High of Bar 1. This range is the trade.

I have not included stop information or money schemes to manage these trades. I will leave that up to you. This gives you entry points and safe exit points. Enjoy.

If I have left out logic I will update at the bottom via EDIT. This was drafted quickly and off the cuff so I hope it is complete.

 

[petty1978]

Quote from schizo:

It was more of an encouragement than a criticism. If you believe that others could benefit from your insight, why not simply create a thread and let the whole world know about it?

Another problem with this place is that there are too many damn market analysts and not enough real traders. Even your biggest admirer (who else but Mr. Pekelo?) was never able to make the distinction between the two.

I misunderstood you. But I have no desire for the whole world to know about how I trade. I enjoy talking to select people and teaching people how to make money. I am using this forum to offer some insight and some techniques that I think someone could learn and utilize as trade signals or guides to make their signals more potent. My goal isn't to lay it on the table but to show them the ingredients I use to "come up" with my signals.

But I placed the trade set up for you. I am real trader, very profitable and do this as a career.

 

[austinp]

Quote from petty1978:

I have been trading for 5 years but we all start out with different core foundations. And learn at different paces. So I don't expect you to "get" what I'm showing you. These concepts are not taught publicly as a "whole". Obviously separately, there is nothing special about the ingredients I use but combined and analyzed a certain way, you get interesting results.

The way I trade is very simple in concept. Very teachable and not about talking the "lingo" the trading world loves to throw around. Talk is cheap, but you already know that schizo being a 20 year vet.

For example here is the QM set-up per your request, I will show LONG set-up, a short set-up is just the reverse of this logic.

***In order to accurately set this up you need to be looking at the QM or CL continuous contract*** you need all overnight data.

(3 day set-up. Bar construction is paramount)

For explanation purposes I will refer to bars 1,2,3 and 3 being the most recent bar, the day the trade is initiated. **SEE CHART**

Day 1 bar set up: Open < Close, Open < High, Close > Low, Median point (1 bar MA, H+L/2) < Open and > Close
[Basically this is a long body candle with wicks and the median point located withing the body.]

Day 2 bar set up: Open < Close, Open < High, Close > Low, Median point (1 bar MA, H+L/2) < Open and > Close
[Basically this is a long body candle with wicks and the median point located withing the body.]

NOW the relationship between Bar 1 and Bar 2:

Bar 2 has to open inside the wick of Bar 1
Bar 2 High has to be less than the close of Bar 1
Bar 2 has to close < the low of Bar 1.

BASICALLY you want 2 properly constructed wide range bodied down candles, consecutive days.

NOW the relationship between Bar 2 and Bar 3:

Bar 3 has to open inside of Bar 2's range. It must drop and tick below the low of Bar 2.

At the low of Bar 2, after a tick or two under this low, Buy to the High of Bar 1. This range is the trade.

I have not included stop information or money schemes to manage these trades. I will leave that up to you. This gives you entry points and safe exit points. Enjoy.

If I have left out logic I will update at the bottom via EDIT. This was drafted quickly and off the cuff so I hope it is complete.

You're anticipating completion of a morning-star bullish reversal. The higher odds trade is buying close of day two on pullback inside day three. That way you see the low has held... instead of five crows falling out of the sky thru day one lows. Day 2 becomes the control bar confirmed, Day 3 pullback = high odds setup sequence.

 

[petty1978]

Quote from austinp:

You're anticipating completion of a morning-star bullish reversal. The higher odds trade is buying close of day two on pullback inside day three. That way you see the low has held... instead of five crows falling out of the sky thru day one lows. Day 2 becomes the control bar confirmed, Day 3 pullback = high odds setup sequence.

This example just happened to look like that...this trade does not work any other way and works like a charm (although I understand what you are saying)...I whole heartedly do not believe in candle sticks or their patterns. I am showing you this visually in candlesticks for reference only. Candlestick patterns fail continually and this set up does not. It does not work consistently outside of the CL or QM and is a signature "tag" from a coordinated group of traders for this contract. When you see this it is a profitable trade set up.

 

[petty1978]

Quote from austinp:

You're anticipating completion of a morning-star bullish reversal. The higher odds trade is buying close of day two on pullback inside day three. That way you see the low has held... instead of five crows falling out of the sky thru day one lows. Day 2 becomes the control bar confirmed, Day 3 pullback = high odds setup sequence.

The signature to this set up is the correlation between bar 1 and 2...

...day 2 opening inside day 1 wick and the high being less than day 1 close...this is the key.

Check it out, it is a powerful signal on the CL and QM only, yes you see it else where but it does not have the same effect.

 

[volente_00]

cash hit 200 day average


High probability of a pullback to 1088 min on futures

 

[tomahawk]

Petty, how many of these CL/QM trades do you see per year on average with this setup? Because just eye-balling a 3-month span of daily bars, I don't think I see a single instance where all your criteria are met. The killer is getting a bar 2 with both open and high(low) within the lower(upper)wick of bar 1, if I understand the rules correctly.