ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from tomahawk:

I have no particular strategy for the day following a single inside day (but days after a huge range day like Friday I tend to look for MR opportunities). Sounds like you have something, and I'm all ears. :)

Regarding your 1094, I would have anticipated hearing a number more like 1107 from you, based on your 50/100/200 concept.
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I have a larger view and a smaller view depending on the time frame...from a systems standpoint I have unresolved price levels, one being the 5-20-10 9:30am 30m Bar High of 1094 and Fridays open of 1054. So I will wait for a larger signal to confirm that the market will make a "sudden" reversal making people scratch their heads, so its a wait and see approach. I do know that the ES short term (week) does not not have many more days down, we are primed for a multi day rally...however if we do not resolve to 1054 (at least) before that, I would suggest being careful on being long without clear cut objective exits (and yes, not every trader has them).

Regarding a 100% expansion on the Full Globex ES Daily Bar, we would have a price level around 1126 today as a full 100% range expansion from Fridays high...if we don't see that today, this particular daily bar technique I showed you starts over tomorrow and uses todays range.

Keep in mind, the best days to use (but not necessary) have long bodies, smaller wicks and have a close greater than (a long day) or less than (a short day) the full range median point.

Also, I use this technique as a guide and not signal orders. But I have friends who have chosen to trade this technique with stocks and make very good returns.
 
Quote from tomahawk:

I have no particular strategy for the day following a single inside day (but days after a huge range day like Friday I tend to look for MR opportunities). Sounds like you have something, and I'm all ears. :)

Regarding your 1094, I would have anticipated hearing a number more like 1107 from you, based on your 50/100/200 concept.
More...

tomohawk I do have an ES Outside Day technique that work great. Inside Day, I don't.

For this technique, you need to be looking at the 30 m Bar ONLY, and at the Full Globex ES Session.

Example:

Stops are going to be larger and positions need to be adjusted accordingly. This can either be used to swing trade or as an intra-day guide, knowing the market wants to head UP.

SO THEN

If today is the outside day then today is day (0) and yesterday is day (1). Day (1) can be an up or down day and day (0) can be an up or down day and there is nor particular structure to the daily bar except the following logic:

Day (1)
1) Find the Full Globex low of day (1) on the 30m bar only.
2) Make sure that 30m Bar does not share that low with any other 30m Bar. It is exclusively the low on that time frame.
3) Make sure that the 30m Bar low is not the 16:30 est bar.

Day(2)
1) Find the low point the very same way

THEN

Connect the two low point to create a trend line. When price reverts back to this trend line "Swing [long] back to Day (0) Full Globex Session [high]"

This does not happen every day obviously but when it does it is a nice trade. I have not looked at any other Emini indexes to see if this works but I am sure it correlates. I like to use the ES charts as guides.

The Short Set Up is exactly the opposite! Check it out let me know what you think.

I will re-read this and make sure I did not leave out any logic, if I did I will leave an "edit" comment at the end of this post.
 
Quote from petty1978:

1094 could offer an excellent opportunity to start a road trip to last Friday's open (1054).

Will update if price gives me a clear signal. As of right now, the ES 30m time frame is leaving markers all over the place that the market may head south.
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EUR/JPY is confirming your south view, but Apple, Google, Citi and Sprint are stemming some of the broader losses...
 
Quote from petty1978:

I have a larger view and a smaller view depending on the time frame...from a systems standpoint I have unresolved price levels, one being the 5-20-10 9:30am 30m Bar High of 1094 and Fridays open of 1054. So I will wait for a larger signal to confirm that the market will make a "sudden" reversal making people scratch their heads, so its a wait and see approach. I do know that the ES short term (week) does not not have many more days down, we are primed for a multi day rally...however if we do not resolve to 1054 (at least) before that, I would suggest being careful on being long without clear cut objective exits (and yes, not every trader has them).

Regarding a 100% expansion on the Full Globex ES Daily Bar, we would have a price level around 1126 today as a full 100% range expansion from Fridays high...if we don't see that today, this particular daily bar technique I showed you starts over tomorrow and uses todays range.

Keep in mind, the best days to use (but not necessary) have long bodies, smaller wicks and have a close greater than (a long day) or less than (a short day) the full range median point.

Also, I use this technique as a guide and not signal orders. But I have friends who have chosen to trade this technique with stocks and make very good returns.
More...

Very insightful, thanks. This definitely adds some clarity to the use of 100/200.

Not recalling hearing much about how the 50% comes into play, where I got 1107 was I just assumed it might be most likely used on the day following a large range day, i.e Fri Globex 1051.25-1088.75 (x .5 up = 1107.50, x .5 down = 1032.50).

Anyway, your numbers will be good to have on the radar whether today stays inside or not. :)
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

EUR/JPY is confirming your south view, but Apple, Google, Citi and Sprint are stemming some of the broader losses...
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EUR would seem to be playing out the H/S on the hourly (3 days), in which case the minimum target may be around 1.226.
 
Quote from tomahawk:

Very insightful, thanks. This definitely adds some clarity to the use of 100/200.

Not recalling hearing much about how the 50% comes into play, where I got 1107 was I just assumed it might be most likely used on the day following a large range day, i.e Fri Globex 1051.25-1088.75 (x .5 up = 1107.50, x .5 down = 1032.50).

Anyway, your numbers will be good to have on the radar whether today stays inside or not. :)
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Yup, you are calculating them correctly. I utilize the 50% marker in so many ways from price reversions to the median of a Bar. I go crazy for the median of a Bar...it has to be one of the most important things I focus on, that and the 3 bar pivot.

I like to use the 50% aspect of price movement on larger multi day moves and reversions back to this level...it works well on the 1m and 30m Bars too...its more complicated and I will hold off at this point in going into a lot of details...as my style becomes more clear to you, Iwill be able to more easily explain it...I guess I'm slowly trying to stack the logic of how I trade, then I can share details of actual trade signals and you will see why it works the way it does and not scratch your head.

I'm kinda starting out in this forum with basic bar construction thats important to me, guides I use to make me feel all warm and fuzzy, session coorelations and expansion and reversion techniques...leading up to to trading models I use (some of them :p).

Hope I'm not rambling...
 
Quote from Arthur Deco:

Petty, great stuff, thanks, but why aren't you concerned that revealing how you trade will let more hogs slop at your trough and shoulder you out?
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because that is an age-old myth with absolutely no reality behind it, in all reality.

a true market edge can never be negated by the masses... basic human nature negates that itself :)
 
Quote from Arthur Deco:

Petty, great stuff, thanks, but why aren't you concerned that revealing how you trade will let more hogs slop at your trough and shoulder you out?
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the flip side is you get more people coming in with ya and move the market favorably for your position
 
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