ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[racyb]

Quote from NoDoji:

Textbook end of day b/o, who played that one? I was in a chat room not even paying attention, figure the day was done.

I went long (1148.25) at the break of the high of the low bar (3:10PM) with anticipation to hold till close. However, got shaken out early on the 3:30PM bar and took a profit of 2 pts and missed the 10+ pts move up.

I was contemplating a re-entry at my original entry price which occurred at the 3:35PM bar, but couldn't technically justify why I would re-enter. I just knew that I wanted to be long, but that isn't good enough. Are there any re-entry signals that could provide use for this situation?

BTW, I am 3/4 through reading your journal and it is AWESOME. More aha moments for me in there than the past 2 years of trading full time. Thank you so much for your contributions and the contributions of your mentors, specifically bighog!

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from racyb:

I went long (1148.25) at the break of the high of the low bar (3:10PM) with anticipation to hold till close. However, got shaken out early on the 3:30PM bar and took a profit of 2 pts and missed the 10+ pts move up.

I was contemplating a re-entry at my original entry price which occurred at the 3:35PM bar, but couldn't technically justify why I would re-enter. I just knew that I wanted to be long, but that isn't good enough. Are there any re-entry signals that could provide use for this situation?

BTW, I am 3/4 through reading your journal and it is AWESOME. More aha moments for me in there than the past 2 years of trading full time. Thank you so much for your contributions and the contributions of your mentors, specifically bighog!

Thanks for your kind words!

What a great long entry off the bottom of a very predictable end of day range. The re-entry signal IMHO was the breakout through the top of the range. Better to have stayed in the trade and wait for a test of the top of the range. Think about how many shorts there were thinking this gap up was too much and would sell off, also shorts still trapped from Friday. Price should at least test top of the range and was a good breakout candidate.

On that note, I frequently cover my positions too soon, not so bad now as I used to be, but I been there a lot!

 

[racyb]

Quote from NoDoji:

Thanks for your kind words!

What a great long entry off the bottom of a very predictable end of day range. The re-entry signal IMHO was the breakout through the top of the range. Better to have stayed in the trade and wait for a test of the top of the range. Think about how many shorts there were thinking this gap up was too much and would sell off, also shorts still trapped from Friday. Price should at least test top of the range and was a good breakout candidate.

On that note, I frequently cover my positions too soon, not so bad now as I used to be, but I been there a lot!

Agreed that should have been my next trade, and in fact I was in the process of trying to click the mouse, but my finger just wouldn't budge. I am still in the midst of converting from a counter-trend mentality to going with the trend and boy is it hard!

But, I must say that forcing myself to trade with the trend today was much more relaxing. Even the +6/-6 opening trade that you mention in your journal felt good today even right after entry. Totally different feeling than the fade I would have normally done. However, that trade was botched today as well, early 2 pt profit instead of the 5pt the market made available. My target limit order was up there above, but I just dragged it down and took the profit!

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from racyb:

Agreed that should have been my next trade, and in fact I was in the process of trying to click the mouse, but my finger just wouldn't budge. I am still in the midst of converting from a counter-trend mentality to going with the trend and boy is it hard!

But, I must say that forcing myself to trade with the trend today was much more relaxing. Even the +6/-6 opening trade that you mention in your journal felt good today even right after entry. Totally different feeling than the fade I would have normally done. However, that trade was botched today as well, early 2 pt profit instead of the 5pt the market made available. My target limit order was up there above, but I just dragged it down and took the profit!

I know, I was totally counter-trend forever and a day. I had to trade breakouts at least 100 times in sim before I tried it live. Honestly I could not get myself to pull the trigger live, it felt so foreign to me to buy a HIGH or sell a LOW.

It's human nature to want the best price. So as traders we try to pick tops and bottoms and forget that catching pieces of high probability moves is what short term trading is all about.

Al Brooks' says that trading with the trend is uncomfortable because to do it you are buying/selling pullbacks or buying/selling highs/lows. So for example if looking for long entry in an uptrend either you are buying when price is falling or buying when price seems "too high". It feels scary, but it's the easiest trade once it's on. And if it fails you have a very tight stop zone for the most part. I always wait for a price pivot, so I know buyers/sellers really are coming back in after a pullback, but I jump in pretty quick when I can.

What helped me in letting winners run further was to allow some trades to go from profitable all the way back to b/e and stop me out. By doing that I realized that the worst thing that happened is I was flat (I always allow a tick to cover commission) and could now choose to try again, perhaps reverse sides, or wait for another setup.

It's also helpful to trade more than 1 lot, so you can get your instant gratification and still have something if the rest is "taken away", but also still have the opportunity to ride a real winner.

If you're trading in a range, take profits if the opposite side of the range fails to break out further. If you're trading with the trend, target a higher high or a lower low, usually a test of the previous S/R zone works very well.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from bigb:

they invoked the overnight limit up when the bailout was unveiled in 2008 but during rth, I cant recall

I am not sure we ever rallied 100 pts in RTH. Mind you if we already started with a huge gap up, then they probably count the 100 from the opening price and not from the previous day's close...

For example on 10/13 the open was 912.75 and the high was 1006, less than 100 pts difference. The previous close was 899, so it seems they do count it from the day's open....(or this could be their excuse, I don't really think they would implement a limit on a rally)

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from racyb:

Even the +6/-6 opening trade that you mention in your journal felt good today even right after entry.

That is Bighog's b/o trade and it works so well and I'm not sure if I ever got myself to play that trade. I do remember leaving more money on the table than I ever made by NOT taking that setup. I think one day when I thought the +6 was just "too high" to buy, it ended up 20 pts higher by the end of the trend.

The whole reasoning behind that strategy is price has exhibited extraordinary strength in a particular direction and a body in motion tends to stay in motion. It takes a complete change in crowd sentiment to turn directional strength around and as long there isn't particular econ news pending, that doesn't happen easily.

 

[racyb]

Quote from NoDoji:

That is Bighog's b/o trade and it works so well and I'm not sure if I ever got myself to play that trade. I do remember leaving more money on the table than I ever made by NOT taking that setup. I think one day when I thought the +6 was just "too high" to buy, it ended up 20 pts higher by the end of the trend.

The whole reasoning behind that strategy is price has exhibited extraordinary strength in a particular direction and a body in motion tends to stay in motion. It takes a complete change in crowd sentiment to turn directional strength around and as long there isn't particular econ news pending, that doesn't happen easily.

Yes, sorry Bighog, I forgot to reference you in my original post. I also remember him saying that this also works because for most days the range expansion occurs in the AM. So in essence the goal is to be in the trade in the right direction and near the start of the move.

 

[jj69]

NoDoji, I know you are for real only because I trade pretty much the same way you do. Your entries are pretty basic stuff, but your ability to max out the potential of a trade often with full size still on is very impressive. I also know there are many other great traders on this site using a variety of methods. What I don't see from them though, is hey I made this many points here and this many bucks there type posts, blotter or not. Why do you feel the need to do this? Why do you think it's necessary for this board to know what you did at the end of the day? It's not your "job" to get people to trade in a certain way, or to inspire them to make x$s a day, or whatever on a public forum you know.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from jj69:

NoDoji, I know you are for real only because I trade pretty much the same way you do. Your entries are pretty basic stuff, but your ability to max out the potential of a trade often with full size still on is very impressive. I also know there are many other great traders on this site using a variety of methods. What I don't see from them though, is hey I made this many points here and this many bucks there type posts, blotter or not. Why do you feel the need to do this? Why do you think it's necessary for this board to know what you did at the end of the day? It's not your "job" to get people to trade in a certain way, or to inspire them to make x$s a day, or whatever on a public forum you know.

Yeah I realized that lately. I'm not posting P/L any more. I post my trades because some here have posted trades for me or call their trades live and it was so incredibly helpful to me, I like to give back something to the discussion.

But you're right, how I trade is pretty basic stuff and it's been all laid out on the table for anyone interested and I'm likely not going to post any of it any more unless I feel something is of particular interest.

My improved ability to let winners run came from hundreds of hours of tedious hard right edge backtesting that built trust in my setups and likely targets. The dev 1.0 Keltner with 20-period EMA is a godsend as well for targets.

My size is relative to how fast I can jump into a trade and get a tight stop on

Today was a 5-lot day for the most part with 2/3 or 3/2 scale outs, because my stops were comfortable.

 

[Arjun1]

Quote from NoDoji:

Yeah I realized that lately. I'm not posting P/L any more. I post my trades because some here have posted trades for me or call their trades live and it was so incredibly helpful to me, I like to give back something to the discussion.

But you're right, how I trade is pretty basic stuff and it's been all laid out on the table for anyone interested and I'm likely not going to post any of it any more unless I feel something is of particular interest.

My improved ability to let winners run came from hundreds of hours of tedious hard right edge backtesting that built trust in my setups and likely targets. The dev 1.0 Keltner with 20-period EMA is a godsend as well for targets.

My size is relative to how fast I can jump into a trade and get a tight stop on

Today was a 5-lot day for the most part with 2/3 or 3/2 scale outs, because my stops were comfortable.

I want to let you know that I do appreciate you calling your trades and posting your blotters.
Lots of traders, new and experienced, can learn a lot from your patience and discipline which results in an extremely high level of consistency and extremely high risk adjusted returns.
No one on this site even comes close to your profit factor (although they may make more money due to larger size).