ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
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I don't see any trade here yet. I had an order @ 82. but now, I'm gonna play the break out if it happens, and not a second before that
I understand you're mostly "tongue in cheek" about wanting to short. However take a look at the timing of my message, 13:08 EST. Look where ES was at the time...87. Didn't fall much lower, did it? Then it goes up five points...
That is never a condition you want to short. How much attention do you pay to volume in your analysis? How many other people do you think developed a short bias just like you because of the speed (nudge) and distance (nudge) of the downside earlier? Where do you think they will be forced to puke?
The entire world worried about government debt, scrambling to find solutions and bubble Ben is blissfully unworried, totally nonchalant, printing money on top of money and making money "free" to the banks. Crazy, absolutely crazy. (disclosure: I made money today, and currently have no position)
She did not say she was shorting when she posted. She said she made money shorting the spikes. I'd be willing to bet she probably shorted the spike after the announcement as well. You had no clue how the market would react to the news. Any position ahead of the announcement was strictly a low probability trade with high risk.
She said something along the lines of "probably a short signal" - even though she wasn't trading it. As I knew this was not the correct location to short the market from I indicated so. NoD explained what her analysis was, and for all to see the market did not give any shorts a chance for profit - instead it went up five points. Whether she was shorting at the time or not, she expressed a preference for the short side. I don't know NoD but can see she is progressing well and will likely make a very fine trader one day. Those who have done the work she has are likely to appreciate the odd prod to ask some interesting questions of their analysis in order to improve. Any "intuition" to the short side in that location represents a misunderstanding in the chain. A good trader will question what was misunderstood and make efforts to improve. There was very little chance the market would sell down from there, so any short position is likely to lose money - the reasons for this need to be understood - and then another piece of the puzzle falls into place.
Interestingly NoDoji isn't telling me to shut up. No doubt it is noticed by some that whenever I make these cautionary warnings against selling the ES it goes kiting up. You cannot complain I do not tell you everything.
I had every clue what the market would do after the news. I even posted again in advance of the event. I did not hold positions through the announcement, but that isn't really your concern. I was not advising anyone else to either. Those who know, know; those who don't, don't.
I have had some free time this week, but I'm giving up trying to make water run uphill.
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