ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from Pholeuon:

In principe no. We start to be intraday to be overbought so much higher we can not but I simple think it will oscillate somewhere here. I do not expect hard reversal there is too low volatility for it.
EUR can run approx to 1.368 until it will be overbought that way that it "must" stop. If it will turn sharp down - I think indices will not ignore it because we are overbought but simple today day has typical sign "if you were not correct at open forget about daytrading".
After my opinion it moves too slowly for daytrade.
We need fall to the 200 EMA at rangebars (1108 now) after 3 days runup but I think we will stay at R1 or above.
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Thanks man. I enjoy your analysis.
 
In principe no. We start to be intraday to be overbought so much higher we can not but I simple think it will oscillate somewhere here. I do not expect hard reversal there is too low volatility for it.
EUR can run approx to 1.368 until it will be overbought that way that it "must" stop. If it will turn sharp down - I think indices will not ignore it because we are overbought but simple today day has typical sign "if you were not correct at open forget about daytrading".
After my opinion it moves too slowly for daytrade.
We need fall to the 200 EMA at rangebars (1108 now) after 3 days runup but I think we will stay at R1 or above.
Thanks nice analysis : )
 
;ast post was not meant as call......too late for that.....just simple fact......5/8....kaboom....was that a sell rally? or a buy dip? 1862.50 within 1/4 pt of perfection, then wait for entry. do not ask what entry was will be giving the goldmine away......
 
6 things i never do.

enter before market open
buy high
sell low
watch volume
watch s/r....only 1/8 marks
watch news

ps: i always enter @ market.....limit entries are not ur friend

pps: my hero is mr marcus from england. he was driven away from here years ago....dbphoenix also......mm is my favorite, db is better than most......
 
everyday is everything.....money all day everyday....once u learn to read the charts and learn where and when to enter...and how to ride......plucking the fruit along the trend.......

can 4 points/day make u a living? x 5/10/20 cars......i think so.....
 
Quote from codliver:

6 things i never do.

enter before market open
buy high
sell low
watch volume
watch s/r....only 1/8 marks
watch news

ps: i always enter @ market.....limit entries are not ur friend

pps: my hero is mr marcus from england. he was driven away from here years ago....dbphoenix also......mm is my favorite, db is better than most......
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what's 1/8 marks?

thanks.
 
Quote from codliver:

everyday is everything.....money all day everyday....once u learn to read the charts and learn where and when to enter...and how to ride......plucking the fruit along the trend.......

can 4 points/day make u a living? x 5/10/20 cars......i think so.....
More...

That's fine. The problem is forecasting volatility.

One can know where to enter and how to ride. One can even know good exit points. The key question (for me at least) then becomes: **WHICH** exit point is a good choice?

Don't misunderstand me. I'm not advocating looking for the optimal exit. Just being able to judge the market temperament in order to get good bang for the buck. My entry is useless if I'm looking to get out at a level yielding four points but the market instead meanders about, offering two points, then none, then two, then none ad nauseum.


I believe this lies in volatility estimators and forecasting methods.
 
I am afraid to buy dip now because of "hot potato syndrome" - if it will start falling everone will do same at once - hands off. Bots will start probably defend just 200 MA on tick charts therefore drop can be very quick.
But if it will be today thats a question. I think more stylish will be squeeze everybody above 1130 (in 1-2 days) with some positive news - than will cover many shorts those are "not so weak swing hands" - before big red candle. I think we will get one this week.

However it looks to me that we will test high of the year - not enough fear in this market and fundamental data are ignored.
 
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