ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[Nexen]

Quote from ammo:

nothing works all the time ,i could get hit by a bus, should i never cross a street

You still did not answer the question.

Trying for a constructive discussion here ammo.

 

[ammo]

its a foolish question, you draw them to try and see a boundary or framework that the market is working in, where it has been, lets you know where it found weakness or support and its possible it will find it there again...truthfully. i think its a little game the whales play to keep us in the game,with what little info we have and by the time we get it, we wouldn't even try to trade,this is just a little carrot in front of the horse

 

[ammo]

where would you close a long or place a short in this chart

 

[Nexen]

Quote from ammo:

its a foolish question, you draw them to try and see a boundary or framework that the market is working in, where it has been, lets you know where it found weakness or support and its possible it will find it there again...truthfully. i think its a little game the whales play to keep us in the game,with what little info we have and by the time we get it, we wouldn't even try to trade,this is just a little carrot in front of the horse

It's not a foolish question.

You see we use technical things because we think we can improve on the random probability numbers. However, here's reality. Your squiggly lines, they can hold or break. You could reply, well, when they break, I know where price is going, supporting why you use them. Which is logical, except, here's what could happen next, your supposed break, could be a fake otherwise known as a failed breakout, rendering the whole squiggly line technique as good or perhaps even worse than randomness.

Not so foolish now isnt it ?

 

[ammo]

well if you toss in the dow, the djt, the eur/usd ,nq, tick,and the advance decline in stocks and stock volume, and they are all moving higher , and breaking there tl's ,then you don't short , but if they have all respected there's and possibly started coming back down, or perhaps not rallied at all, this indicator if you want to call it that, gives you a little or a lot more conviction to enter a trade, using the s/r lines on all of those indexes

 

[Builder17]

Quote from ammo:

truthfully. i think its a little game the whales play to keep us in the game,with what little info we have and by the time we get it, we wouldn't even try to trade,this is just a little carrot in front of the horse

interesting take. i always wonder why they work. Nexen, a TL worked for the bulls on feb 5th (with that 200 EMA, but still), so why not the bears in the coming week with that chart Ammo posted? i understand price can blow through them and will eventually as nothing works forever. but so long as you play them right and manage risk if things dont go your way, using them can work if thats your style

 

[ammo]

djt had res at 4050 and ran to 4070,i watch it all the time so i knew this was odd behavior, did a little research and saw unp and csx were paying dividends on 2/24 so i discounted its rise , without the tl's , i would not have had a barometer to measure whether it wass strong or week, normal or out of sinc

 

[ammo]

jss uses macd ,LC uses vwap, vol uses rule of ten and a 9/18 moving crossover, B1S2 uses major trends,there are a lot of profitable traders on here who methods i don't know,all different strategies, all profitable in the right hands,....

 

[codliver]

Brother's trading log for thursday and friday....NQ ES




thursday: enters early morning rides to end of day....makes 400..he and newbie boy.... for all day ride CRAPPY DAY BUT buy low at apex saved his bacon all day...truth is he could have exited at 10 am and re entered at 1 or so and made more money, saved the emotional wear and tear fight fear of retracements.

..friday was run day to ride away til noon...the sell til close
friday: opex day: brother says enter on same catbird seat drop dead gorgeous entry.....now why did he bail when seeing 150........because he was convinced thru his massive data that opex will take your money from you......

I have to say, anticipation, mind bias will kill trader acct...this is what day before and any other pre-market open prepping will do for emini trader. If u say watch squawk box leave the city immediately.


If they traded mechanically like a robot when market went up hard and orderly and straight til noon they would have killed thursday quicker and easier... why did they not recognize that friday was 10 times better ride day than thursday?....one trade up one trade down

because his chart is not as mportant to him as the key lines /key prices, etc and what other traders were commenting made him think....wrong....my advice to him for the hundredth time litereally ...stop thinking

 

[codliver]

Ammo,

I have to agree with you concerning different systems for different traders....that is why promoting one is like forcing something on others who will never accept it. Human nature, I guess. Dead charts always look great. Learning to read the live chart is great.