ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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If you look at the chart with the political context behind it that may not be possible. The break of 10/10/08 spx lows only occurred after Obama was elected and inaugurated. It was Obama's contemptuous and hostile rhetoric that lead sell offs each time.

It was not till 2 weeks after the stimulus package was signed off that Obama announced on March 3rd it "was a good time to buy stocks," three days prior to the low. If they want another stimulus measure passed this spring to take effect by election time, Obama must put a full court press on the market, no way he could get it politically if spx is at 1200. If he keeps it up I will be looking for 870-950 on the spx in very short order (1-2 months).

Lawrence Chan
TickQuest

Registered: Sep 2001
Posts: 4242


01-22-10 04:11 PM

Thanks for remembering that.

Below 90 should they build a base in couple of weeks (or just days!), then a retest of the year high is in order.

Lawrence
 
We all know it will not hold up and a significant sell off is coming.

What I think is that in couple of weeks, should we get a base somewhere above 1000, then another leg up is possible.

This time, the more important thing is the time it is going to take.
 
If you are short, here are some things to consider:
Hitting completely obvious support in the 1080s, VIX spikes to around the same level as the last few pullbacks, we usually go up on Mondays, only once have we had more than two down weeks since March, it is not common to have 4 down days in a row and 5 is extremely rare, we are at the bottom of our channel, Bernanke looks to be ok now.

You don’t have to be long, but being short right above key support is illogical. We do have a little room between Friday’s close and our 1080 support, but it is small enough that you shouldn’t bet big on being down the next few days unless we break that support. With all that going for the bulls it is not safe to bet against them but be ready to flip if they can’t hold support because it is relatively critical that they do so. If 1080 support holds then I am looking for ES 1113 (or at least a bounce for a better short entry), if not then I expect the 1065 area soon with serious support in the 1030s for the -10% buyers.
 
Quote from opt789:

If you are short, here are some things to consider:
Hitting completely obvious support in the 1080s, VIX spikes to around the same level as the last few pullbacks, we usually go up on Mondays, only once have we had more than two down weeks since March, it is not common to have 4 down days in a row and 5 is extremely rare, we are at the bottom of our channel, Bernanke looks to be ok now.

You don’t have to be long, but being short right above key support is illogical. We do have a little room between Friday’s close and our 1080 support, but it is small enough that you shouldn’t bet big on being down the next few days unless we break that support. With all that going for the bulls it is not safe to bet against them but be ready to flip if they can’t hold support because it is relatively critical that they do so. If 1080 support holds then I am looking for ES 1113 (or at least a bounce for a better short entry), if not then I expect the 1065 area soon with serious support in the 1030s for the -10% buyers.
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Also CNBC, a reliable contrarian indicator, is very bearish:D
 
Here's my humble analysis of SP500 daily chart.

Using cash index as guidance, the market is in a clear uptrend, 100 and 200 day averages clearly uptrending.

The latest pullback though was brutal absolutely destroying the 50 day, using a 2 standard deviation on the 50, it looks we could have confluential support there with the 100 MA so I'm expecting some sort of support there at the 1080 area. It's too premature to decide if that holds or not, but if it holds the market has another shot at new highs, otherwise I'm afraid it's a quick hard run to the 200.

Best of trading to you all.

No Heat
 

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I'm looking for a bounce to the 1110 area, then a resumption of the recent decline heading toward the 200, bottoming out around 1040.

I think the lack of topline revenue growth, along with some of the other factors, is going to result in a little bit more significant decline. I'm pretty much looking for the november low as support.
 
Quote from No.Heat:

It's too premature to decide if that holds or not, but if it holds the market has another shot at new highs, otherwise I'm afraid it's a quick hard run to the 200.
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The market had a shot at new highs last week and instead it pretty much double-topped and then fell on solid earnings, even before China and Obama opened their mouths.

We were running full steam ahead on expectations for a quick recovery. Now what will happen if the big banks can't keep the their earnings bubbles inflating with highly leveraged exotic investments? (Or is the appropriate description "toxic investments"? Pretty much the same letters...)
 
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