ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
- Start date
- Status
To my fellow ES traders with a bearish inclination:
Friday's vol was the 3rd highest since May of this yr. The 1st, 2nd, and 4th highest were also big selloffs. They were also the day before a change in direction.... to the upside.
Big money controls the market, and they are in their trades long before we are.
Good trading.
Friday's vol was the 3rd highest since May of this yr. The 1st, 2nd, and 4th highest were also big selloffs. They were also the day before a change in direction.... to the upside.
Big money controls the market, and they are in their trades long before we are.
Good trading.
jkrammer theres some big differences. first those other high vol selloffs were after many days of dowside .we're in long sideways move here. second yesterdays heavy vol wasn't even a selloff as we closed up and we're still near highs for the 8 month move. based on the chart this could also be a topping formation after a once in a lifetime 70% move.
i'm capitalizing on short term, in the most extremely negative context we will ever see, u stated that u pyramid on a winning position , lose 9 out ten trades and make your money on a hail mary pass, before bashing someones occassional profitable homerun ,if u look at this without emotion and without your acct balance on your screen, u can avg from the losing or winning side, heads or tails,it's still always a coin., akin 2 your own style of trading, u should visit the blanket statement,of never avg into a loser...this is an emotional stoploss for someone who doesnt understand where the market is headed, in stocks this is a golden rule, in indexes it is a near mute point... before replying, ask yourself if this was an emotional or intelligent post and whether it's worth continuing this discussion., i dont care to carry this conversation any further with an emotional agenda,my belief is that emotions are a weakess in trading and one should be vigilant in supressing them, good luck
Interesting response Ammo. When I am looking at a trade setting up I firstly take into consideration what may I lose based on expected reward. And I treat all my trades as a 50/50, no matter what end of term stats might show. Some people have 70/30 & say that is the way to trade profitably, I am of an opinion if you are ready for the worst ie to lose 80 out of 100%, then it becomes difficult to be effected psychologically, on the other hand a person that is used to lose 30 out of 100% may get emotional if that statistical probability is disturbed & is taken to 50/50 or God forbid 80/20 as markets do perform different characteristics & it is almost impossible to predict every single day's activity.
As far as what you do it is all very personal & we all have our own paths to follow, it is down to choice. You choose to average or build a position, I choose to cut trades that don't go my way, another guy doesn't use stops at all & beats our results, etc. It's all about controlling risk, if you use a prudent strategy, then who can say - you are a fool for doing so.
Have a great week people!
P.S. I agree that Losers Average Losers is a blanket statement, a trade registers as a losing one whenever a stop is ignored & trade starts being managed by hope.
As far as what you do it is all very personal & we all have our own paths to follow, it is down to choice. You choose to average or build a position, I choose to cut trades that don't go my way, another guy doesn't use stops at all & beats our results, etc. It's all about controlling risk, if you use a prudent strategy, then who can say - you are a fool for doing so.
Have a great week people!
P.S. I agree that Losers Average Losers is a blanket statement, a trade registers as a losing one whenever a stop is ignored & trade starts being managed by hope.
saliva
Registered: Jul 2004
Posts: 4293
12-05-09 09:47 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from [Proximo]:
Averaging down killed more jews than nazis :-}
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, if you were even half-smart, you wouldn't be fighting on two fronts at the same time like Hitler.
.......................................
DUH!!!! Hitler had no choice in the matter. The rest of the world decided he had to go. Sick minds follow sick minds, thus hitler also suckered in the Japs and some Italian loser. The rest is history. The Russians kicked nazi from the East and we and allies from the west. The Japs were losers from the git-go, suckered in by Hitler who would have screwed them in the long run anyway.
PS: Ammo is only bullshiting himself on averaging a loser. It sounds good and looks good in print .......but in reality it is suicide.
PS: the problem with flawed strategy in trading is the same as flawed tactics at a casino. You WILL lose, it is just a matter of time. Like slot machines, small winners keep you pulling the lever until you bust out. Averaging down or up on a loser has an advantage though..........it will shorten the time you BELIEVE. :eek:
Registered: Jul 2004
Posts: 4293
12-05-09 09:47 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from [Proximo]:
Averaging down killed more jews than nazis :-}
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, if you were even half-smart, you wouldn't be fighting on two fronts at the same time like Hitler.
.......................................
DUH!!!! Hitler had no choice in the matter. The rest of the world decided he had to go. Sick minds follow sick minds, thus hitler also suckered in the Japs and some Italian loser. The rest is history. The Russians kicked nazi from the East and we and allies from the west. The Japs were losers from the git-go, suckered in by Hitler who would have screwed them in the long run anyway.
PS: Ammo is only bullshiting himself on averaging a loser. It sounds good and looks good in print .......but in reality it is suicide.
PS: the problem with flawed strategy in trading is the same as flawed tactics at a casino. You WILL lose, it is just a matter of time. Like slot machines, small winners keep you pulling the lever until you bust out. Averaging down or up on a loser has an advantage though..........it will shorten the time you BELIEVE. :eek:
Just to throw the thread off a bit more.....did you read WW2 for dummies? Hitler attacked Russia. Hitler decided to wage war on 2 fronts.
Back to business, sorry for the break.
Back to business, sorry for the break.
Buy1Sell2, according to his own posts, was building a position for years, he is still around. But he did change his strategy to all in all out recently, as he was questioned as to why scale in if you don't scale out, if scaling out is inferior, then scaling in is also inferior. Plus lots of portfolio managers average down when building a position. Again, it is ignoring a stop which determines whether a trade becomes a losing one & loses reason to keep on scaling in, not the practise itself, ImPO.
Scaling in is an inferior strategy though compared to an all in one. As when price takes off straight away you are only in 10% (or whatever initial add is) of your total position. As long as liquidity is not an issue it is best to be all in straight away.
Even the guy that started that quote, PTJ, in his video clearly states - "I believe we have a position". He kept buying contracts not at one single price level, he was scaling into a position. Again, that quote is relevant to ignoring stops, not a scaling in strategy.
Scaling in is an inferior strategy though compared to an all in one. As when price takes off straight away you are only in 10% (or whatever initial add is) of your total position. As long as liquidity is not an issue it is best to be all in straight away.
Even the guy that started that quote, PTJ, in his video clearly states - "I believe we have a position". He kept buying contracts not at one single price level, he was scaling into a position. Again, that quote is relevant to ignoring stops, not a scaling in strategy.
Ok ammo, you are a good sport, so regardless if I consider your position management to be cursed I will treat you with respect because you deserve it.
The reason I'm emotional about averaging down is because the nastiest losses I ever took (and seen people take) in my trading came exactly from that, and not necessarily from adding to a loser forever just being wrong and adding fuel for the sake of what, hope?
Now you claim you have a limit, well, without being nosy, say you use 5% risk overall. Well with the number of times you add and the distance that these adds cover, your account balance must be huge to justify this. I don't think we've seen you take a loss although I don't keep up enough to confirm this, might be wrong.
Also what about the adds, are they the same size or you double down ?
Anyway, I'm definitely missing something here.
Once I get some answers then if you wish, I can clarify anything related to my position management, which is far from perfect but has no risk of ruin.
I'm a skeptic but I've also been trading for a long time, if you want to discuss trading, I'm good to go.
Apologies for coming out strong in the beginning, I'm now giving you the benefit of the doubt for the sake of a good trading discussion although still with skepticism.
Over the yrs I have practiced both scale in and all in techniques in swings and scalps. In both trades, I can unequivocally say that my accts have faired better with scale in, almost entirely due to risk abatement and significantly smaller losses on losing trades.
I will gladly give up a little profit at the entry to avoid big losses incurred when using all in. I quickly know w/ my setups when a trade is going to work in my favor, and I can quickly add to my position.
But one of the biggest advantages of scale in for me is the emotional aspect. All in losses ruin a trader's confidence. Slightly smaller profits is a small tradeoff to a better trading state of mind and smaller losses.
- Status