ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from saliva:

Fair enough, but what do you mean by supply/demand forces that are absent from the equity markets? It ain't my intention to play a word-game with ya but for the sake of an argument, isn't the earning power of the companies that make up the index directly tied to the consumers' supply/demand, which the speculators gauge every month (eg. consumer sentiment, same-store sales, blah, blah)?
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Understand. You are conned by the "industry". =)

Those are imagined "evaluation" of these companies, not supply/demand. Just like opinion (or a__hole), everyone has one.

Only a handful of people in this world has some use of the valuations should they be interested in acquiring a company for some specific purpose.

There is no delivery on ES of physical goods for use in real world. There is also no delivery on stocks to be consumed on a regular basis. Think about that.

There used to be real demand for stocks, when, at the time, they provide dividends consistently that beat the UST.
 
Quote from saliva:

I can see how you derived 1096 but isn't it "too obvious"? Hence, I don't think it will get there myself--at least not within the next hour.
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on a 3min cons. line chart, ES has been below 50 MA siince 10 E. this morning, so bias is down.

if trend is down, 1096 ES is the magnet.

we will see if it works..
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Understand. You are conned by the "industry". =)

Those are imagined "evaluation" of these companies, not supply/demand. Just like opinion (or a__hole), everyone has one.

Only a handful of people in this world has some use of the valuations should they be interested in acquiring a company for some specific purpose.

There is no delivery on ES of physical goods for use in real world. There is also no delivery on stocks to be consumed on a regular basis. Think about that.

There used to be real demand for stocks, when, at the time, they provide dividends consistently that beat the UST.
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LC, since you seem to be missing my point, let me be forthright with ya. The damn PA that worked beautifully (at least for me) for the last 15 odd years doesn't seem to work (at least for me). Don't tell me that's because of some VWAP morons with deep pocket! BTW, do VWAP really work as they're touted? From what I can tell, their success rate is about as mediocre as moving averages.
 
Quote from saliva:

LC, since you seem to be missing my point, let me be forthright with ya. The damn PA that worked beautifully (at least for me) for the last 15 odd years doesn't seem to work (at least for me). Don't tell me that's because of some VWAP morons with deep pocket! BTW, does VWAP really work as they're touted? From what I can tell, their success rate is about as mediocre as moving averages.
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Yes. Your 15 years PA based analysis are screwed by the bots.

VWAP bots that work are MM bots. They are essentially what the floor traders do, they chase after liquidity.

What is liquidity? Chapter 1 for almost all floor traders in the world, buy new high/low, break the levels, to see if that induces liquidities - be that stops (!), new outside paper chasing the direction (!!), etc.

VWAP bots are now back by a million times the capital of the old S&P pit floor traders, so as oppose to fake out, you get breakout at price levels that are not so strong afterall.

Solution - You need bias beyond a day to beat these guys.
 
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