ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from ASusilovic:

We will never see 1105 because of some amateur bot programers...

Having a tight stop was the plan isn't it for many profitable daytraders in the old days.

These guys simply follow the most profitable path for scalper style trading. That closes the door for most day traders who try the same thing because humans are slower in this ultra fast game.

I don't have a problem with that.

The VWAP bots with huge capital backing is the real problem because they can effectively do an "all-in" as in poker game against all the other players. From my analysis they can handle about 1.5 to 2 times the total liquidity that daytrading parties currently in the game.

Thus the push around.

Should they be limited to say 1% max of open interest, the old PA and patterns will be restored.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Should they be limited to say 1% max of open interest, the old PA and patterns will be restored.
What you call "old PA" is still very pertinent and much applied elsewhere. It's only the equity market that defies all reasons and rhymes. All in all, "have charts, we'll trade" mentality no long sells.
 
Quote from saliva:

What you call "old PA" is still very pertinent and much applied elsewhere. It's only the equity market that defies all reasons and rhymes. All in all, "have charts, we'll trade" mentality no long sells.

It boils down to analysis of an instrument, how it works and how its price discovery process is affected.

For commodities, many do have real supply demand forces. That is one of the underlying driving factor.

That is completely different from stocks and its derivatives as they have no real value at all. To most people in the world, they are papers for storing value and speculations, that's all. e.g. you will not get a physical delivery of SP as your raw material to make some products! =)

Stick to things you can read is better than beating around the index mkts, afterall, we are talking about making a living, that's all. No need to fight a game with disadvantages you do not like to accept.
 
Quote from pokito:

woah - lets keep it simple

will not post here for 1 week if wrong, vice versa

Nah. Posting is good for the forum. A simple "he was right" will suffice.

Good luck.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

It boils down to analysis of an instrument, how it works and how its price discovery process is affected.

For commodities, many do have real supply demand forces. That is one of the underlying driving factor.

That is completely different from stocks and its derivatives as they have no real value at all. To most people in the world, they are papers for storing value and speculations, that's all. e.g. you will not get a physical delivery of SP as your raw material to make some products! =)

Stick to things you can read is better than beating around the index mkts, afterall, we are talking about making a living, that's all. No need to fight a game with disadvantages you do not like to accept.
Fair enough, but what do you mean by supply/demand forces that are absent from the equity markets? It ain't my intention to play a word-game with ya but for the sake of an argument, isn't the earning power of the companies that make up the index directly tied to the consumers' supply/demand, which the speculators gauge every month (eg. consumer sentiment, same-store sales, blah, blah)?
 
Quote from pokito:

woah - lets keep it simple

will not post here for 1 week if wrong, vice versa
I can see how you derived 1096 but isn't it "too obvious"? Hence, I don't think it will get there myself--at least not within the next hour.
 
GLOBAL YIELD: Few Waves Made As Central Banks Inch Toward Exit


By Deborah Lynn Blumberg
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Two major central banks Thursday took baby steps toward eventually pulling large amounts of cash from the financial system--and markets barely flinched.

That's a testament to the improvement in global markets. It's also a small, but hopeful, sign that the policymakers' gradual and carefully laid out approach to weaning markets off the extraordinary assistance provided during the crisis won't lead to significant disruptions in the financial system.

For sure, neither the Federal Reserve nor the European Central Bank are about to remove those large amounts of cash for a while given that the banking system is still fragile and economic recovery tentative. Yet the ECB's announcement that it would slowly curtail banks' access to very cheap long-term funding and the Fed's conduct of a small reverse repo operation mark another milestone in the gradual recovery of financial markets after last year's seizure.

etc

Most important for markets was that both banks stressed the moves weren't intended as monetary policy signals.
 
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