ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
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Well, since u won't tell us Monday's pattern, let's see what Investopedia says about your mocha latte vente pattern:
"U" shaped bottom -- check, sort of. While not like the Vs of the two previous lows, it is more U shaped.
Cup should not be too deep -- check. Low was not a LL.
Right edge of cup should be higher than the left -- check
Avoid handles which are too deep -- check
Volume should dry up on the decline and remain lower than average in the base of the cup -- Houston, we have a problem. Vol actually increased on the way to the base of the cup. Moreover, the volume the day before the low of the cup was the second highest vol of the year.
Volume should increase when it starts to make its move back up to test the old high -- Houston, now we have a serious problem. The vol on the way back up was among the lowest avg vol of the year.
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In summary, we have a low that significantly broke the trendline, a barely higher high (presumptuous?) preceded by a very labored move up.
You're expecting a blow off Monday. Possible. I'll trade what I see and do what Mr. Market and wholesale tells me to do. If I see S at 80-85, I'll be long to 1100. If I still like the PA, I'll stay in to 1113 area. If I like that PA, hello 1120.
My personal opinion is we'll see more S at 83/85 area, retest 05 area, then begin the descent to 1050, then I'll reevaluate from there. I don't watch patterns or OB/OS indicators. I watch pure PA, S/R and trendlines/channels. For every successful cup and handle you show me, I'll show you one that failed.
I'm not implying that you are wrong or use an inferior trading method. I'm just contributing to ET a method that works very well for me, hoping it helps any disappointed traders here at ET take their trading forward to a consistently profitable basis. Am I consistently profitable? Hell no, but part of my trading plan is a 3:1 winning day/losing day proceeds ratio. Minimize risk first, trade well second. Success will naturally follow. "Make money" is not and never will be a part of my trading plan.
Good trading.
These are the exact zones I envision as well. 83/85 is being defended, but not with any particular strength. We'll need some news beats to get to 1105 IMHO, but as long as support holds, anything "less bad" might do it.
Usually right about this time in the cycle back to the trend line (this coming week) overseas markets suddenly become "worried" about the economic recovery and we then begin feeding off each other to drive price down to the next value-priced "buyable dip" which should be the 1050 zone.
"Usually" is the key word here, as tomahawk can vouche.
around 1m cst the spx was 1088 and the advn/decn on the nyse was 119/2000,same oddball #'s on thursday, clearly manipulated for expiration ,with that as a basis, i would expect a move down to 1076 and possibly 1063 in the es, the dollar is trying to break res while eur/usd is trying to break supp...this looks like it will break......but...if they can move sideways for december, our highly revered friends at jp morg and goldman hacks will lock in their well deserved hefty yearly bonuses, not that ,that has anything to do with charts or fundamentals,nor should anyone take notice.
I definitely see /ES 75 area as a potential major support, but that support structure has only succeeded once since the bear trap in early July. Coincidentally, that area coincides with the major trendline from March. I'm also not counting out the minor trendline from 8/17. PA will speak loudly at these areas.
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