ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
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end of the US as a sovereign country?...end of worldwide peace?
How do you figure that?
Only one comment for todays sesssion :
dumb, dumber, bearz....
dumb, dumber, bearz....
The path of money printing at hyperspeed has a very negative impact on importers.
Look at the dispute between costco & coca-cola. It is a great example.
Should USD crash another 10 to 15%, game over for many import companies. Will there be a bail out for them? Of course not as they are not at the right position to hassle for $ from the government. Plus, the same scam cannot work twice.
So crash USD => implosion of US economy in 3 months, as most companies have enough credit facilities to last 3 months, the standard cashflow practice.
Then why not pop USD? Popping USD => crash of US stock mkt as it is financed by the carry trades with USD as the borrowing base. And all boomers with stock holdings will vote the politicos out, ooops, next year. Boomers, afterall, are the majority voters, next are the seniors.
Thus US, as a country, will be insolvent no matter what within months as the government effectively killed middle class and the jobs these middle class small businesses can provide.
On to other countries, their exporting businesses are crushed. So are their banks. And old money that control most of the hard assets in Europe and Asia would not spend a dime in this scenario ... just an act of self preservation.
Can the other countries pop up USD to save their own economies? No, because that is indirectly buying USD => financing the bubble that the US wanted.
Short of a war, worldwide scale, there is no other way for the governments to shift the blames.
A economic war is going on, as US trashing its currency while all other governments finding ways to not being dragged into the disaster. Such war does not count because most people do not even recognize the war is going on at this moment.
And one disaster driven scenario that can get the politicos out of their own mess - a shock event ... something big hitting Earth, a worldwide pandemic, etc. That will shift the blame for sure. Are they betting on something like that to happen soon? Maybe they are hoping for that to happen everyday.
I am not happy with the results of the scenario analysis, but my models seldom fail.
My take is to daytrade only so that there is no need to worry about my position the very next day.
For positions in currencies, unlike ES, I can keep hard stops there ... for my peace of mind.
A clean swipe above 1110 in SPX will do the job.
As no one can take it below the 10 am slot low, the intention is clearly higher.
Goldman and JP Morgan say thank you for this gift of a trading session.
Long time ago, there was a firm that saved all worldwide events, eco #s, etc. in a database for pattern matching. I think at the time, the firm has 3 clients only ... =)
We've done a similar effort and I can model from just price patterns across unlimited # of timeframes to see in real-time where price can go to, in hours, in days, etc. or using events, etc. for a match over days to months.
Most of the time, you see 50/50 ... from time to time you can get high prob. setups.
As a trader, I hope for the best, and prepare for the worst. =)
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