ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)
- Thread starter Jahajee
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Thanks for the example Pek. How about a possible difference in the three tops in this 1999 example compared to the strength of today's rally. The 1999 tops either barely break out north from a short bar or break out then fizzle (in same candle.) Today's candle "looks" much stronger. Your or anyone's thoughts on this for a noob? Maybe we just need another 10-12 point pop up to be that weaker candle then a drop. So I'm back to the position it goes up, down, or sideways. :eek:Quote from Pekelo:
I looked for another examples when higher highs went with lower low RSIs. Here is a chart from 1999, it ended up the SPX dropping 100 points in 9 days:
Difference is the whole 2003-2007 bull kt run was around 100%. in 8 short months we're already up close to 70%. So in 8 months we've accomplished 70% of what it took that bull to do in 54 months.also the 2003 lows were a double bottom and retest of the 2002 lows. This mkt ran vertical off a huge bear mkt fall and has never even tried to retest yet.We won't even discuss fundamentals. time will tell. we're in un charted territory
I know opinions are a dime a dozen, but here's what I see unfolding in the near term ... Most of this is classic stuff, nothing fancy ... (see attached image of SPX cash). A big rising wedge on decreasing volume, broken lower long term TL (after breaking an even steeper previous shorter term TL) now results in a test of top (on even more decreasing volume).
The high test may have two probable outcomes:
1. a marginal new high (or maybe even a lower high) that fails, and then a stairstep down to retest the 200 DMA ... or
2. the test could pull back to 1080 or so, and then blast even higher ... but I'm banking on (and positioned for) the first scenario.
The high test may have two probable outcomes:
1. a marginal new high (or maybe even a lower high) that fails, and then a stairstep down to retest the 200 DMA ... or
2. the test could pull back to 1080 or so, and then blast even higher ... but I'm banking on (and positioned for) the first scenario.
Right at the 100 bar avg on the weekly I guess if we close above 1090 1125 is the next stop which would be the 50% fibo from 06 high to march low. I'm net short right now but if we close above 1090 I'll be watching jan 1100 calls to see if there is a spike in activity. Have a great day!
At the Opening Bell, the uptrend remains intact, but it's looking like more a consolidation type of day is in the making.
Price sits in-between its Pivot Point at 1083 and R1 (First Resistance) at 1101. Either target could be hit today, or it could just trade in a narrow range.
Good trading
Price sits in-between its Pivot Point at 1083 and R1 (First Resistance) at 1101. Either target could be hit today, or it could just trade in a narrow range.
Good trading
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